2019年7月2日 星期二

Trump isn’t winning his trade wars

In the clinch, he keeps backing down.
View in Browser | Add nytdirect@nytimes.com to your address book.
Packages of Tyson-brand chicken products.

Packages of Tyson-brand chicken products. Ramin Talaie/Corbis via Getty Images

Paul Krugman

Paul Krugman

Opinion Columnist
"Trade wars," Donald Trump famously declared, "are good and easy to win." But he's finding out that this isn't at all the case.
Let's define what we're talking about here. Even in the days before most world trade was covered by international agreements, trade wars, in the proper sense of the term, were rare.
Of course, there were lots of tariffs. But slapping on a tariff to protect an interest group isn't really a trade war. It's only a war if the goal isn't to reward some domestic players — anyone can do that if they're willing to break their existing trade agreements — but rather to compel foreigners to give you something you want. The infamous Smoot-Hawley tariff was stupid and destructive, but it wasn't designed to extract foreign concessions. The 1964 tariff on imports of light trucks, on the other hand, was originally intended to force Europe to accept imports of U.S. frozen chickens. Now that was a trade war.
It was also a failure. The U.S. never did get much of a foothold in the European chicken market, and the light truck tariff is still in place, 55 years later.
Of course, that trade war was, well, chicken feed compared with the Trumpian trade wars, which involve tariffs covering hundreds of billions' worth of goods. These tariffs are or were supposed to compel major policy changes in Mexico, China and ultimately other countries.
It's not working.
Mexico did agree to replace Nafta with the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which differs from Nafta in that … well, actually you need a magnifying glass to see the differences. And at the G20 summit, Trump put the threat of further China tariffs on hold and dropped sanctions against Huawei in return for some vague promises.
So why isn't Trump winning his trade wars? The trade hardliners in his inner circle probably thought America had a clear upper hand. After all, Mexico is far more dependent on the U.S. economy than vice versa; China sells far more to us than we do to them, so it would seem much more vulnerable to tit-for-tat retaliation.
But it seems to me that the Trumpian trade warriors made three crucial mistakes.
First, like all too many Americans, they failed to understand that other countries have their own nationalism, their own pride. Trump revels in humiliating his rivals; well, no Chinese leader will or probably even could make an agreement that looks like surrender to American demands.
Second, they failed to understand the changing character of modern trade. In the days of William McKinley, who some Trump advisers see as a role model, you could think of distinct national industries in competition with each — say, U.S. steel versus German steel. These days everyone's industry is enmeshed through complex global supply chains. A breakdown in Nafta would inflict immense damage on manufacturing on both sides of the border. So American industry isn't behind Trump's trade wars, the way it used to support McKinley-era protectionism. On the contrary, it's horrified at the prospect of more trade conflict.
Finally, Trump doesn't have a popular mandate for his trade wars. Voters by and large believe that his tariffs hurt the economy. And China's retaliation, while it affects a much smaller dollar value of products than the Trump tariffs, is hitting constituencies he depends on — especially farmers — hard.
None of this means that Trump is about to abandon all the tariffs he has imposed. But that's just protectionism, which really is easy. What isn't easy is winning a trade war. So far, Trump hasn't won any victories, and the odds are that he never will
Quick Hits
Simon Wren-Lewis on how Boris Johnson's supporters in the media try to destroy his critics.
Ancient Rome was remarkably rich – and remarkably sick. Urbanization didn't work too well before the discovery of modern public sanitation.
Year after year, The Onion tells us the real truth – in this case, about what people really wanted from the debate.
Trump wants Sherman tanks in his parade, apparently unaware that they went out of service more than 50 years ago. Anyway, the Sherman was cheap and mobile, but badly outgunned by German tanks. The real secret of victory in WWII was the Allies' unprecedented integration of artillery and air power into the battlefield.

FEEDBACK

If you're enjoying what you're reading, please consider recommending it to friends. They can sign up here. If you want to share your thoughts on an item in this week's newsletter or on the newsletter in general, please email me at krugman-newsletter@nytimes.com.

Facing the Music
<nil>
The Hot Sardines/YouTube
I take the New York subway almost every day. Somehow, my rides never look or sound like this.
ADVERTISEMENT
In The Times
What Happened to America's Political Center of Gravity?
By SAHIL CHINOY

The Republican Party is farther right than U.K.I.P. and France's National Rally, according to an analysis of their platforms.

Please Stop Telling Me America Is Great
By TAIGE JENSEN AND NAYEEMA RAZA

America: not so great.

Spotify sponsored star-studded performances for guests at Cannes Lions 2019.
The Global Economy Runs on Parties You're Not Invited To
By FARHAD MANJOO

Schmoozing still runs the world.

Kamala Harris taking the stage for the Democratic primary debate.
The Women Who Won the Debates Are the Democrats' Best Hope
By MICHELLE GOLDBERG

The impressive women leading the race so far.

ADVERTISEMENT

NEED HELP?

Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance.

|
Get unlimited access to NYTimes.com and our NYTimes apps. Subscribe »
Copyright 2019 The New York Times Company
620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018

歡迎蒞臨:https://ofa588.com/

娛樂推薦:https://www.ofa86.com/

The Privacy Project: Parents, your kids are living in a K-12 surveillance state

Is tech really the solution to student safety?
View in Browser | Add nytdirect@nytimes.com to your address book.

Tuesday, July 2, 2019

ADVERTISEMENT
Security cameras at a middle school in Sidney, Ohio.

Security cameras at a middle school in Sidney, Ohio. Andrew Spear for the New York Times

Charlie Warzel

Charlie Warzel

Opinion writer at large
The home page for Gaggle, a software program that scans student activity across digital platforms like email, computer files and online assignments, features a staggering, if unprovable, statistic. "This past academic year, Gaggle helped districts save 542 students from carrying out an act of suicide," it reads.
Calculating figures like suicide prevention is a murky science at best (Gaggle emailed to say that the number was "actually 722 students saved"), but that hasn't stopped digital student monitoring systems like Gaggle, which has roughly five million users, from growing in popularity. In the wake of mass shootings like Parkland, school districts are facing pressure to find new ways to deter violence, and many of them force administrators to make a choice between student safety and privacy.
Their decisions are ushering in a K-12 surveillance state. This spring, Western New York's Lockport City School District started testing facial recognition technology with "the capacity to go back and create a map of the movements and associations of any student or teacher." There have been gunfire-detecting microphones installed in New Mexico schools and playgrounds that require iris scans. A recent ProPublica report explored the deployment of unreliable "aggression detector" cameras in places like Queens, New York. The increase is most likely linked to the number of security and surveillance technology vendors courting school district budgets.
"This technology is being promoted by tech vendors, not educators, and it's certainly not being promoted by parents," Monica Bulger, a senior fellow at the Future of Privacy Forum's Education Privacy Project told me. Despite federal statistics that show schools are among the safest places for children, the public believes that schools are more dangerous than ever. "School administrators feel they need to provide a solution. The tech seems to provide a quick, easy fix," Bulger said. "Schools aren't considering whether it is the best fit; they're choosing the fastest one."
Arguably more troubling than the collection of student data is where that data is stored and who has access to it. As Education Week reported in May, Florida lawmakers are planning to introduce a statewide database "that would combine individuals' educational, criminal-justice and social-service records with their social media data, then share it all with law enforcement."
Such a database is likely to reveal sensitive information like which students were bullied or harassed, because of a protected characteristic like their sexual orientation, according to Amelia Vance, who directs the Education Privacy Project. All this information, once compiled, could be exposed through data breaches, sent to child data brokers or misclassified, which could lead to outing students or wrongly identifying innocent students as threats.
And there's no consensus that monitoring every aspect of a student's life, both in school and via their devices, is a universal good. Bulger, who has been interviewing families of children between the ages of 9 and 17 on their attitudes toward privacy in schools, argued that students are stressed by constant monitoring, while their parents tend not to know it's going on. "Generally, parents feel insecure that they don't understand how their kids are using technology. School is the one place where they feel like somebody is in control and they trust the schools are acting in the child's best interests," she added.
Worse yet, the students can't opt out. "It's a binary choice for the kids," Bulger said. "A teacher told me years ago, 'If you want to opt out of using the Google education suite, then you'll also need to opt out of fourth grade.'"
Which is why Vance and Bulger suggest that parents ought to read up on student monitoring in their districts, ask questions and, if necessary, speak out. When it comes to student privacy, parents may be complacent, but the tech companies sure aren't.
From the Archives: "Students and Privacy"
<nil>
NYT archives
Continuing on this theme, our trip to the archives takes us back to January 1985 to a story about a Supreme Court ruling on student privacy. It's a great historical primer that shows, as the archives tend to show, how little our biggest debates change over the years:
"Students in school as well as out of school are 'persons' under our Constitution and are possessed of fundamental rights which the state must respect," the Court held in Tinker v. Des Moines Independent Community School District. Young people do not, it stated, "shed their constitutional rights at the schoolhouse gate."
The piece shows how this stuff gets thorny quickly. The 1985 case describes how "the Court ruled for the first time that the Fourth Amendment's protection against unreasonable search and seizure applied to schoolchildren." But there's nothing straightforward about the law when it comes to the definition of unreasonable:
"'Reasonable suspicion' in the courts is no more than a hunch, and I don't think this is an appropriate standard when student rights are involved," said Gerald Lefcourt, a New York lawyer who handles many search-and-seizure cases. "If school officials take an aggressive approach, students' privacy rights will almost evaporate."
I suggest reading the whole piece.
ADVERTISEMENT
Tip of the Week: How To Fool Always-Tracking Advertisers
<nil>
Amazon screenshot
If you're reading this, you probably already know that you're being tracked everywhere online to serve up targeted (read: relevant) advertisements. Since this sort of monitoring is baked into the core of web-browsing architecture, there's not a lot you can do (you can go 'Incognito' and clear cookies or use an ad blocker). Which is why I enjoyed this experiment in online civil disobedience from researchers at Mozilla. It's called "Hey, Advertisers, Track This!" and it's designed to scramble the brains of the myriad ad trackers that monitor your every move.
The experiment, which you can do for yourself here, allows you to choose from one of four fake user profiles (Hypebeast, Influencer, Doomsday and Filthy Rich). Then it launches 100 (yes, 100) tabs in your browser that are designed to make your browsing behavior look like one of its stereotypical profile types. For example, picking Influencer will launch dozens of tabs with Amazon searches for holistic remedies, pages for meditation apps and other online New Age goodies.
Once the tabs open, you can close out of the window or delete them individually. If it's successful, the ads that follow you around the internet should change drastically. The hope, according to Mozilla, is to "throw off brands who want to advertise to a very specific type of person."
A few days ago I tried this for myself. Before the experiment I was getting a lot of tech-related ads for services like Google Fi and Verizon (there were also, somewhat inexplicably, a lot of ads for what appeared to be baggy hemp and linen clothes for women over 30). I dialed up the "Track This!" page and chose Doomsday. I let the cascade of prepper tabs wash over me like an early-aughts Alex Jones monologue. In an instant I navigated to a dozen Amazon pages for products like the Emergency Zone Urban Survival 72-Hour Bug Out bag. There were searches for water purification tablets, survivalist tutorials and a few Home Depot links for "outside equipment." 
True to its word, the banner ads that followed me around the internet changed pretty quickly. Sensible and chic linen garments became tactical camouflage raincoats. The advertising powers that be thought I'd taken up a sudden interest in Medicare enrollment. The brands had been thrown off!
As the website for the experiment notes, this is more of a stunt than a solution. After all, you're still seeing ads, just not relevant ones. Still, it's a stunt that lays bare how the online ad ecosystem works. And if there's one revealing truth about the whole thing, it's how it demonstrates what a brute-force tool ad targeting is. Despite the constant intrusions and collection of reams of browsing and personal data, much of what's served up to us via interstitial online ads is semi-relevant at best. The machines may know us, but they don't know us. Yet!

I want to hear from you

Send me your pressing questions about tech and privacy. Each week, I'll select one to answer here. And if you're enjoying what you're reading, please consider recommending it to friends. They can sign up here.

What I'm Reading
We just saw the first conviction of a murder suspect who was identified using genealogy website data.
Here's a great feature on how Amazon is rather quietly building a huge, networked surveillance infrastructure (that we're all willingly welcoming into our homes).
And here's this wild piece: Amazon's Facial Analysis Program Is Building a Dystopic Future for Trans and Nonbinary People
Just a wee bit more Amazon creepiness: Amazon Is Working on a Device That Can Read Human Emotions
Ha, you thought we were done with Amazon. How cute! How Amazon and the Cops Set Up an Elaborate Sting Operation That Accomplished Nothing
More On Privacy
Smile, Your City Is Watching You
By BEN GREEN

Local governments must protect your privacy as they turn to "smart city" technology.

The Worm That Nearly Ate the Internet
By MARK BOWDEN

It infected 10 million computers. So why did cybergeddon never arrive?

Stop Collecting Immigrants' Social Media Data
By FAIZA PATEL

The Trump administration is continuing a bad policy that doesn't make us safer.

Need help?

Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance.

ADVERTISEMENT
|
Get unlimited access to NYTimes.com and our NYTimes apps. Subscribe »
Copyright 2019 The New York Times Company
620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018

歡迎蒞臨:https://ofa588.com/

娛樂推薦:https://www.ofa86.com/