2020年4月28日 星期二

Who pays for disaster relief?

Or, the true meaning of government debt.
Anna Moneymaker/The New York Times
Author Headshot

By Paul Krugman

Opinion Columnist

I get a lot of hate mail; in fact, I worry if a column doesn’t generate a big backlash, because it suggests that I may have been off my game. But it’s interesting to see what generates the most hate. In general, writing “Donald Trump is a terrible person” gets a sort of collective shrug; who isn’t saying that these days? The real vitriol tends to come over monetary and fiscal policy.

In particular, I don’t think anything I’ve written has angered as many people as my declaration five years ago that debt is money we owe to ourselves — a point I naïvely imagined would be self-evident once people thought about it. But it turns out that challenging the notion that government borrowing imposes a burden on our children and grandchildren deeply offends many people, even though that notion makes very little sense.

So I don’t really expect people to be persuaded when I say that the response to Covid-19 is a near-perfect demonstration of my point. But let’s give it a try, anyway.

Here’s where we are right now. To contain the coronavirus, we’ve effectively shut down a significant part of the economy. Around 10 percent of U.S. workers are or were employed in “leisure and hospitality,” which has basically been locked down; even more are employed in retail trade, much of which has also been locked down.

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So we’re providing disaster relief on a huge scale: unemployment insurance, aid to small businesses and more. It’s still inadequate, and a lot of the money still isn’t making it to the people who need it most. But put that on one side, and ask: How are we paying for it?

The immediate answer is that the federal government is borrowing the money. New projections from the Congressional Budget Office suggest that federal debt, as a share of G.D.P., will be around 30 points higher by the end of next year than it was at the end of 2019.

But who will that money be owed to? The answer is, me — and people like me. That is, those who are still receiving more or less their normal incomes are spending less and saving more — yes, we’re buying more groceries and booze, but that’s vastly outweighed by reduced spending on restaurants and vacations. And those savings are, one way or another, being recycled via the federal government into aid for those less fortunate.

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You might ask how the money will be repaid; actually, the odds are that it never will be repaid, which is OK but that’s a story for another time. There are also potential problems created by a high level of federal debt, although to be honest it’s unlikely that U.S. debt will be a real problem any time soon.

The key point for now, however, is that this debt-financed disaster relief isn’t coming at the expense of America’s future growth; it’s not making the country poorer, and it’s not cheating future generations. The debt we’re incurring now is money we owe to ourselves.

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Quick Hits

America came out of World War II with huge debts — and experienced an unprecedented economic boom.

Britain emerged from World War II with debt of 270 percent of G.D.P. It never paid that debt off — but the ratio of debt to G.D.P. fell 80 percent over the next generation anyway.

Floridians mostly aren’t getting unemployment benefits.

Massachusetts residents mostly are.

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Facing the Music

We’ll meet again, once the governor says it’s safe.Youtube.

So many lovely performances from quarantine.

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2020年4月27日 星期一

On Tech: The (simple) secret to success

The most important question: It is easy to use?

No, the best doesn’t win

Derek Abella

Facebook has Zoom envy. A zillion companies are trying to eat Netflix’s lunch. Amazon isn’t the best place to shop, but it’s the king.

People — and I’m including myself — tend to overthink why some companies and products last and others wither. Being the first or even the best at something may not matter.

Simplicity is the overlooked secret to success. “It just works” are magic words.

In two months, Zoom went from an online video-calling service used by a relatively small number of businesses to a staple of pandemic life. My dad knows what Zoom is. “Zoombombing” and “Zumping” — being dumped by video chat — are verbs.

Why Zoom? Because it nails the basics.

While I was reporting an article last year, a business owner in Kenya said he mostly used Zoom for calls out of the country. The voice quality was far clearer than unreliable international telephone lines, he said. And technology executives, who usually aren’t impressed by anything short of unmanned spaceflight, regularly gush about the ease of hosting Zoom meetings.

Video meetings don’t seem like rocket science, but it’s hard to make something seem easy. (Products that are simple to use can also be easily abused.)

Now, as my colleagues Mike Isaac and Sheera Frenkel reported, Facebook is putting its weight behind its own video-calling feature. You might call it … Zoombook?

I don’t want to give too much credit to simplicity. Sometimes companies get lucky, are smart about enlisting allies, or make a better mousetrap. Money and ruthlessness doesn’t hurt, either. But often, easy wins.

Right now there are scores of companies trying to break Netflix’s lock on our home entertainment. They’re writing big checks to Hollywood stars in the belief that we care most about having the best movies and TV shows. Meh.

What’s overlooked is Netflix’s extreme competence at making it easy to buy and while away a lazy afternoon.

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Disney’s streaming service is a counterpoint here: It just works, too, but also had early success because parents, especially, need the movies and shows. Disney is also a marketing genius.

When products don’t overtax our neurons, habits become ingrained. You could shop somewhere other than Amazon, but why bother? It works. The iPhone doesn’t give people reasons to ditch it. Google’s Chromebook computers took over schools in the United States largely because they were simple for children, and easy (and cheap) for schools.

Make it easy. Make it just work. It’s the deceptively difficult ticket to riches.

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Tip of the Week

Your iPad now works with a mouse. (Wait, what?)

Brian X. Chen, our personal tech columnist, suggests a potentially handy — and old-school — addition to your iPad:

In my last column, I named the iPad as the gadget of the pandemic because it excels at delivering our basic tech needs: entertainment, communications (especially videoconferencing), computing and internet access.

There’s also a brand-new benefit you might not be aware of: Your iPad now works with a mouse. The latest software update, iPadOS 13.4, adds support for wireless trackpads and mice, including accessories made by companies other than Apple.

Here’s how to pair your mouse with an iPad:

  • First, make sure to have the latest software installed, iPadOS 13.4.1. Go to the Settings app, tap General and tap Software Update. Follow the instructions to proceed with the installation.
  • After the installation is complete, open the Settings app, tap Bluetooth and then turn on your mouse. Your mouse should show up on the list of devices. Tap on it to connect.
  • Now you can just use your mouse to hover around and click on apps and buttons. This is a nice option to have if you are working with spreadsheets and documents and get tired of reaching toward the screen.

Before we go …

  • Do they really need Uncle Sam’s money? Technology start-ups are debating whether to seek government loans earmarked for pandemic relief, my colleagues Erin Griffith and David McCabe report. Many of these young companies are hurting financially, but they have more far more places to turn for cash than most small businesses.
  • If you’re the parent of a tween, you already know this: Many millions of people watched musician Travis Scott perform a series of virtual concerts in the video game service Fortnite. Popular as a place for group shoot-’em-up games, Fortnite may also be a glimpse at the future of social entertainment when life is lived through screens.
  • Here’s a job that didn’t exist before: My colleague Taylor Lorenz writes about a life coach for people who give advice online about creativity, fitness, cooking and more. Being a social media influencer is a stressful, lonely life even before this pandemic spurred many more people to show their lives online.

Hugs to this

Jimmy Stewart and Bette Davis flubbed their lines sometimes. And when stars of old Hollywood messed up on a movie set, it was amazing.

We want to hear from you. Tell us what you think of this newsletter and what else you’d like us to explore. You can reach us at ontech@nytimes.com.

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