2020年9月1日 星期二

Scenes from an urban hellscape

Who you gonna believe, Trump or your lying eyes?
New York is looking pretty cheerful these days.Hiroko Masuike/The New York Times
Author Headshot

By Paul Krugman

Opinion Columnist

Full disclosure: I’m one of those privileged New Yorkers who decamped to the suburbs during the worst of the pandemic. But I’ve been back in the city lately, and over the past few days I’ve been doing a lot of walking around.

All that walking, by the way, is normal. One of the seeming paradoxes of modern America is that urban life typically involves much more physical activity than life in suburbs or small towns. The population density of my neighborhood is about 60,000 per square mile, which means that parking is very scarce but a lot of things are in easy walking distance. So it’s generally just more convenient to get around on your own two feet than to use a car.

Anyway, my perambulations have given me a good view of life in the biggest of those “Democrat-run cities” President Trump insists have become dystopian hellscapes. Well, you could have fooled me.

The truth is that at the moment New York City looks pretty cheerful. There are many people out and about. Most stores are open, albeit with social distancing rules. Many restaurants have expanded onto sidewalks and into former parking lanes to provide outdoor seating. The parks are full of joggers and cyclists — in fact, I too have gone back to jogging in the park (yes, wearing a mask; it’s not so bad, really).

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True, I live in an affluent neighborhood that even pre-Covid felt fairly European. But I’ve been in other parts of New York a bit, and have heard a lot from friends around the city; they share my impression of a city that has pulled itself back together much better than you might think if you listened to the politicians.

And the city feels safe. Nor is that an illusion. True, there have been more murders in New York this year than over the corresponding period last year; homicides have risen all across the country during the pandemic, and nobody is sure why. But overall violent crime is down, and even the 2020 homicide rate is still well below what it was under … Rudy Giuliani.

Meanwhile, if you’re worried about Covid-19, at this point New York is one of the safest places in America. Almost everyone is wearing a mask. Daily deaths are in the low single digits, which even adjusting for population makes NYC an order of magnitude safer than, say, Florida.

So is everything fine in the Big Apple? No, of course not. The city’s economy is reeling, and both the state budget and the city’s finances are in desperate straits. Mass transit, the city’s lifeblood, is still a shadow of its former self; no, I have yet to ride the subway. The proliferation of sidewalk cafes will be tested when the weather gets colder. And many amenities, like live concerts and cheerful pubs, remain off limits; I don’t know when we’ll be able to return to what you might call the Urban Lifestyle Dream.

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The point, however, is that the reality of New York bears no resemblance to the nightmare vision peddled by Republicans. So the question becomes, who are you going to believe: Trump or your lying eyes?

I wish I was sure about the answer to that question. I’ve been shocked by discussions with well-educated people who haven’t been to New York lately and who actually believe that the city has been devastated by mobs of violent looters. So maybe Trump really can sell voters on the notion that this resilient city is actually a lawless nightmare.

Now, if you don’t mind, I’m going to go out for a sidewalk coffee and pastry.

Quick Hits

How much looting actually took place in New York?

New York has a very low positivity rate — that is, fraction of Covid-19 tests finding the virus. Florida is more than ten times worse.

But can the city really reopen schools?

President to NYC: drop dead.

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Facing the Music

Why does it seem so inviting?YouTube

It’s not autumn yet, but this seemed appropriate.

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On Tech: Yes to tech optimism. And pessimism.

We need tech optimists to shoot for the moon. But we also need those looking for problems.

Yes to tech optimism. And pessimism.

Tim Peacock

I recently made a promise to myself, and I would like you to join me. When I consider something new bubbling up in technology, I have vowed not to get overly excited about either its potential benefits or its downsides.

I know nuance is rare these days, but please join me in the vast zone of complexity between “wow, cool!” and “that won’t work” or “that’s evil!” I want to live in those shades of gray.

I’ve been thinking about this gray zone because of two things: a tweet and Elon Musk.

Sriram Krishnan, a technology executive whom I respect, tweeted a few days ago asking for more optimistic descriptions in movies and television of people building technology. He didn’t put it quite this way, but I imagined he wanted less fiction like “The Circle,” about a surveillance-state corporate cult, and more like “Iron Man,” in which a tech nerd cobbles together a suit that saves his life and gives him superhero powers.

I get what Krishnan is saying, and there’s a bigger meaning behind it. Right now, there’s a lot of pessimism about the harm of social media, the creepiness of digital surveillance of our smartphones and our faces and the nefarious power of tech giants.

Those downers sometimes drown out the ways that we know technology has made many of our lives immeasurably better. Both “The Circle” and “Iron Man” encompass some form of reality, but it’s easy to see technology as either one or the other.

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You could see that in reactions to Musk’s flashy demonstration on Friday of brain-implanted computer chips that he hopes may someday help combat serious health conditions like strokes and spinal cord injuries.

Musk is a master showman, and every time he does an act about an underground car tunnel in Los Angeles or bulletproof electric pickup trucks, there is the same reaction: Some people say he is making amazing and life-changing innovations. And other people say that Musk’s promises are unproven and unoriginal hype.

I can’t predict what happens with Musk’s Neuralink company. Musk has repeatedly promised technology that doesn’t pan out or that seems pointless. His companies have also helped advance electric cars, enabled commercial space travel and forced the entire auto industry to rethink what cars combined with computers can do. Sometimes the doubters are right about Musk. But so are the cheerleaders.

That’s why I want both “The Circle” and “Iron Man.” I don’t know how to get the balance right, but it’s worth starting by acknowledging that both sunny and grumpy people have a point.

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We need tech optimists to shoot for the moon — literally, in Musk’s case. But I sometimes think tech companies also need to give more voice to chief pessimism officers who ask, what if this technology doesn’t work? Who might be harmed by this technology, and how can we prevent that? And do we need this at all? Give those Eeyores a corner office.

The tech downers and the “Iron Man”-loving optimists need each other more than ever. Technology is not something that exists in a bubble; it is a phenomenon that changes how we live or how our world works in ways that help and hurt.

That calls for more humility and bridges across the optimism-pessimism divide from people who make technology, those of us who write about it, government officials and the public. We need to think on the bright side. And we need to consider the horribles.

If you don’t already get this newsletter in your inbox, please sign up here.

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Your Lead

Support for Apple’s control over apps

I wrote in Monday’s newsletter about some app makers’ complaints that Apple has too much control over what iPhone apps people can download and charges unfairly high fees on some app purchases.

Some readers emailed to say that they sided with Apple exerting its power to keep the App Store safe, and that app makers get a good deal for the commissions Apple charges them. Here is selection of what they said:

“I really like that Apple closely scrutinizes apps before allowing them on the App Store. I had an Android previously and felt like it was more of the Wild West in terms of what apps might actually do or if they were in fact harmful. I therefore didn’t download many at all. I hope that things that matter to us users aren’t overlooked in how this squabble gets resolved.” — Vicki Rundquist, McHenry, Ill.

“What you specifically do not talk about is the convenience Apple gives it developers for placing an app within their environment. Apple does a whole lot of work to make it easy to use the App Store. I want Apple to control what is offered to us within its App Store. They want Apple to do a whole lot of work and then not even get paid for it." — Gordon Musch, Richmond, Va.

“I think Apple could resolve the dispute with Epic and avoid a possible finding that they are a monopoly by allowing users to sideload apps, but only after the users have received a series of scary warnings about how they are giving up the protection Apple gives them from malware. If the warnings are scary enough, I think most people would rather download from the App Store, even if they could sideload apps for less money.” — Blaine

(Note from Shira: “Sideloading” refers to downloading apps outside the official Android or Apple smartphone app stores. Apple doesn’t permit people to sideload apps. Android phones do, but Epic said that Google made it unfairly difficult.)

Before we go …

  • Pay attention to Australia’s proposed law on online news: Facebook (and Google) are suggesting that they might make it harder for people to share news stories online in response to a proposed Australian bill that would require the companies to pay news organizations for articles that appear on their sites. This is essentially a negotiation in public over the details of the proposed law.My colleagues Dai Wakabayashi and Mike Isaac write that the Australia example shows how government measures to restrain tech companies threaten to further erode the principle of a single unified internet.
  • The perfect encapsulation of the gig job market: Delivery drivers for Amazon and its Whole Foods supermarket have figured out a way to get first in line for orders. Some of them are perching smartphones from trees near grocery stores or delivery outposts, Bloomberg News found, because the software that dispatches Amazon delivery couriers doles out jobs to people who seem to be closest.
  • A pioneer of online learning is worried about online learning: Salman Khan, the creator of Khan Academy online learning videos, has tips for parents and schools doing remote learning: Opt for shorter online learning sessions for younger kids with more breaks, and have open conversations with schools about whether students are being asked to do too much.Khan also tells The Washington Post that he’s worried about children who are being left behind by remote school, and parents who are taking on too much.

Hugs to this

You might need a dose of good news as much as I do. Here is how people teamed up to rescue a young humpback whale that was stuck in a tangle of fishing gear.

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