2020年9月2日 星期三

On Tech: Amazon’s biggest leap was boring

Forget about drones. Amazon delivered something just as innovative with nuts and bolts.

Amazon’s biggest leap was boring

Tim Peacock

Nearly seven years ago, Amazon’s Jeff Bezos predicted a major leap forward for his company: drone deliveries of lipstick and books to your door. That attention-grabbing technology has barely gotten off the ground and might never be widespread.

But over that same time period, Amazon did something else that has transformed home delivery without as much buzz. It effectively built from scratch its own network of package centers, trucks and delivery vans that now handle a majority of Amazon customer orders that used to be dropped off by the Postal Service, UPS or other parcel companies.

While we were eager for innovation from the skies, Amazon delivered something just as innovative with nuts and bolts.

The divergence between the imagined and the real Amazon delivery transformation shows that we are terrible at predicting what will become innovative revolutions. And, as I have said in this newsletter before, it proves that banal stuff can be the biggest marvels.

So what happened? Bezos said in the 2013 interview that it would take four or five years to have those drone deliveries. It turns out that using remote-controlled aerial gizmos to drop stuff at our homes is incredibly difficult, prone to risk and potentially more trouble than it’s worth.

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Like driverless cars, drone technology in populated areas is more complicated than most people expected, and it has been — mostly for good reason — tightly controlled in the United States by government agencies worried about drones straying into the path of airplanes, dropping out of the sky onto our heads or unwittingly spying through people’s windows. It wasn’t until this week that the F.A.A. gave Amazon permission to do drone deliveries.

And drones might never be practical for deliveries when someone in a vehicle could do the same thing in a fraction of the time and cost. Drones are a great public relations jolt for Amazon, but let’s not put too much stock in them for awhile — maybe ever.

What Amazon did instead was build its own delivery network, essentially creating something not far off the 113-year-old UPS in well under a decade. It was a remarkable remaking of Amazon, and in my mind it’s the biggest, least flashy change in e-commerce in years.

Amazon did this by spending tons of money. It expanded from a handful of merchandise warehouse clusters to increasingly specialized distribution centers in nearly every state. It enlisted an army of contractors to drive delivery vans for the company, and helped fund some of the delivery companies. Amazon bought its own airplanes, and in some places the company’s parcel flights are now responsible for a big chunk of traffic in the skies.

Most of this is way too dull to make a good YouTube video.

I don’t want to exaggerate Amazon’s delivery operation. The company still needs the Postal Service and other delivery partners. But arguably without this D.I.Y. delivery operation, it would have been harder for Amazon to speed up delivery times and keep pace with people’s growing desire to shop from their sofas.

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It’s debatable whether we want Amazon warehouses in more of our neighborhoods, couriers pressed to meet tough delivery demands and armies of contract workers that can be ditched on a whim. By comparison, drones seem like a less messy alternative to Amazon’s human army of overworked contractors.

That’s the reality of technological changes. The fanciful stuff that we imagine will be pure and clean may never come to pass. And the biggest innovations are duller and potentially messier.

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(Semi-) good news about social media

Look, it’s unnerving that a group backed by Russia’s government tricked Americans into writing for a website intended to divide left-wing voters.

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The silver lining is that this episode shows that the U.S. government and big social media companies seem to have learned from mistakes they made around the 2016 U.S. presidential election.

This time, U.S. intelligence agencies spotted what seemed like a foreign influence operation online, my colleagues Sheera Frenkel and Julian E. Barnes reported. The F.B.I. tipped off Facebook. And Facebook collaborated with Twitter and other companies to sleuth out where the Russian group was setting up online to take it down before it got a big audience.

This is exactly how we want law enforcement and social media companies to act. They were proactive and collaborative and stopped this Russian meddling campaign relatively early. That didn’t happen four years ago.

There remain dark and difficult threats online, including misleading political and health misinformation originating from Americans and spread by powerful people, including President Trump. We don’t need Russians to divide us; we’re doing it to ourselves.

But I’m going to take comfort in the fact that these trolls were spotted because tech companies and law enforcement did the right things.

Before we go …

  • Here comes easier virus alert tech. Will we trust it? Apple and Google are making it easier for public health officials to use smartphone technology that can notify people who may have been exposed to the coronavirus. My colleagues Jack Nicas and Natasha Singer write that people won’t need to download a specific health app to track possible virus exposure.The big question is whether people will trust virus-tracking technology and public health agencies at all. (I’ll have more about this in Thursday’s newsletter.)
  • More context is good. But should this feature exist? Twitter’s “trending topics” feature is supposed to highlight popular news events, but it can be gamed by people to get attention for distorted or partisan information.Twitter said on Tuesday that it would add more context to these trending topics, but my colleagues Kate Conger and Nicole Perlroth write that some people at the company are urging Twitter to turn off the feature entirely.
  • There is no escape from political campaigns: People can now get virtual Joe Biden yard signs in Animal Crossing: New Horizons, the elaborate virtual world video game. This has a vibe of the 2000s, when political candidates set up campaign headquarters and rallies in Second Life, a pioneering virtual world. Second Life is still around and recently banned some political displays after a campaign sign war.

Hugs to this

All of these sea lions are adorable AND EXTREMELY LOUD at barking.

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Keeping a Love for School Alive

Learning in 2020 is going to be a roller-coaster of adjustment — here’s how to retain some joy.

Keeping a Love for School Alive

Cristina Spanò

I have spent the past week cleaning out my girls’ bedroom for the upcoming school year, unearthing relics from the before times. It feels like Pompeii; everything is frozen in place from Friday, March 13, the last day my children attended school in person. There were two particular artifacts that pushed me close to tears: a purple mesh bag from my younger daughter’s preschool that used to hold her nap sheets and stuffy, and a collection of three books from the “Puppy Place” series that my older daughter brought home from her classroom’s library.

These particular objects reminded me how much my daughters loved school. Now there will be no cozy group naps or browsing shelves full of worn-in books. They also reminded me how much my girls did not love distance learning in the spring, and how anxious I am about another round of it this fall.

Across the country, whether your kids are learning remotely, doing some hybrid of online and in-person, or back fully in-person, with new protocols like masks, social distancing and staying in only one classroom, school will most likely not look anything like it did in February.

I know how lucky I am that my kids used to enjoy school in the first place, but I really started to wonder: How do I keep their love of school alive in these unusual and unstable circumstances? So I asked a kindergarten teacher, a child psychologist and a learning specialist for their suggestions.

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Create a welcoming at-home learning environment with clear boundaries. All three experts agreed: Treat a distance-learning school day the same way you’d treat an in-person school day. Kids need to get up at the same time, get dressed, eat breakfast, brush their teeth and hair and sit down in a specially designated school area. “In the spring, we all got really comfortable in our pajamas, and it took on a world of its own, because we didn’t know what to expect,” said Amanda Marsden, a kindergarten teacher in Cape Elizabeth, Maine. “Make sure those lines don’t get blurred.”

Even if you live in a small apartment, you can set up an inexpensive cardboard study carrel at the kitchen table for your kid, and get a box for them to store their supplies, just to create a visual delineation between their school area and the rest of the house, said Katharine Hill, a learning specialist and parent educator in Brooklyn. Be sure to put toys and other fun activities out of sight during school time, for you don’t want a visual reminder of something they would rather be doing. If you have more than one child, try to separate them as much as possible, and have them use headphones.

Get the kids involved in picking out their school supplies, even if you are shopping online, said Dunya Poltorak, Ph.D, a pediatric medical psychologist in private practice in Birmingham, Mich. If money is tight, as it is for so many right now, Dr. Poltorak recommended cleaning up and redecorating last year’s items, like backpacks, as a family. “You can still pull everything together in a way that makes it fresh and exciting,” even without buying new supplies, she said.

Figure out what they hate, and why they hate it. We have heard from many readers that their kids do not like Zoom, and that it’s impossible to get them to sit for their classes. If your children are like this, first try to identify specifically what they hate about it, Hill advised. Do they hate being on camera? Do they dislike speaking in front of large groups? When you’ve identified the particular problem, you can try to mitigate it through camera settings or talking to your child’s teacher, they said. For some children, hiding their own video window so they don’t have to see themselves “can psychologically make a difference,” said Hill.

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If the issue is that your child won’t sit still for distance learning classes, or, that there is a particular app she doesn’t like to use, more than one expert recommended setting a timer, especially for little kids. A timer that children can see is ideal. “We’re working on building our stamina,” Marsden said — which is something they do in a normal classroom. First, try setting the timer for five minutes and asking the child to do whatever task they don’t love for that amount of time. Then try 10 minutes. This may help reduce conflict, because “you’re not the one enforcing it — it’s the timer. It’s not mom or dad’s fault,” she explained.

If they hate mask-wearing, get them involved in picking out or decorating their own masks, and talking positively about which kids in class have the coolest ones, Marsden said. “Their buy-in is really important this year.”

Don’t catastrophize. It’s easy to stay up nights worrying about your kids’ education and working yourself into a fear spiral of “what ifs” — I know I have! And it is true that remote learning and school closures have failed millions of children the world over, as a new report from Unicef shows.

But it’s important that we don’t show our kids how anxious we might be. “We want to build resilience,” Hill said. “And we do that by acknowledging that things aren’t the way we hope they are, but we still look forward to specific aspects, and we can learn from the experience as it’s happening.” Hill also mentioned that there are some things your kids may even prefer about distance learning, so don’t assume all the changes will have negative effects.

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Dr. Poltorak also emphasized getting kids comfortable with uncertainty — which is all around us, even when we’re not in a pandemic. When we’re in a rainy spell, “we don’t know when we’re going to have our next sunny day for sure,” she said, but that doesn’t mean we can’t make the best of a less-than-ideal school situation.

That said, if your children are miserable in whatever learning scenario you’re in, you should absolutely speak to their teachers. “You have to be your child’s advocate. We don’t get to see your kids, all day every day,” Marsden said. “Communication is going to be critical in providing the most effective and social emotional instruction.”

I’m still thinking about what Sinead Smyth, a licensed marriage and family therapist called “ambiguous loss” in a previous newsletter — that kind of fuzzy grief that comes from recalling all the mundane things we’re missing in the pandemic. But the act of putting together a $49 desk for my daughter that I had lovingly stalked on the internet for weeks made me feel a bit of hope for a fresh start. And when she saw it for the first time, she squealed with glee.

P.S. Follow us on Instagram @NYTParenting. Read last week’s newsletter, about the chemicals to watch out for at home. If this was forwarded to you, sign up for the NYT Parenting newsletter here.

Want More on School in 2020?

Tiny Victories

Parenting can be a grind. Let’s celebrate the tiny victories.

I put two rags in an empty Kleenex box and my 1-year-old spent the day taking them in and out. — Shira Adriance, Montreal

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