2020年10月6日 星期二

Lessons from a super-spreading White House

Our dysfunction runs deeper than we realized.
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Author Headshot

By Paul Krugman

Opinion Columnist

Like almost everyone who pays attention to the news, I’ve spent the past few days glued to one screen or another, waiting for the next bombshell to go off. But what have we learned from all of this? Of course, we’re learning that Donald Trump and those around him lie about everything and don’t care at all about endangering other people. But that’s more of a confirmation than a revelation — we basically already knew that, although we didn’t expect such graphic evidence. What’s actually new?

Well, one thing I’ve concluded is that I and most others thinking about it were wrong about climate change. Seriously — bear with me for a minute.

I don’t mean that we were wrong about the science. I’m not a climatologist, but my home base is a field, economics, in which serious researchers have to contend with a lot of pseudo-analysis coming from politically motivated hacks. So I know what both genuine expertise and crankery sound like, and I don’t have any doubts about the reality and danger of climate change.

Where I’m starting to think we were wrong was the politics.

Even a few months ago I would have said that the politics of climate action were hard, despite the scientific consensus, because of space and time. Space: the damage from greenhouse gas emissions falls on the planet as a whole, not the people next door, which makes it hard to motivate action against polluters. Time: the consequences of emissions unfold over decades, which makes it even harder to get people to act now.

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But dealing with Covid-19, while it bears a strong conceptual relationship to climate change — like emitting greenhouse gases, irresponsible behavior in a pandemic is an “externality,” a cost you impose on other people — is everything dealing with climate change is not.

The consequences of bad pandemic policy take months, not decades, to become obvious — it only took about two months for Trump’s “LIBERATE” tweets, and the premature reopening they helped inspire, to produce a deadly viral surge in the Sunbelt.

And it turns out to be relatively easy to link harm to specific actions. The coronavirus, we’re learning, isn’t mainly disseminated by those annoying people who can’t figure out that their masks should cover their noses as well as their mouths; instead, the main culprits are a relative handful of super-spreader events, in which large groups of people clump together while ignoring basic safety precautions.

So this should be easy. Cause and effect are pretty clearly linked, so it shouldn’t be hard to build a political consensus to do the right thing.

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Yet what we’re actually seeing is irresponsibility and denial. Taking even the simplest, cheapest actions to protect others — like wearing a face covering in public places — has become a partisan issue. And the party in power isn’t just refusing to crack down on potential super-spreader events, it’s holding such events itself. Future generations will find it hard to believe that the Rose Garden event for Amy Coney Barrett took place amid a pandemic; they’ll find it even harder to believe that Trump and company show every sign of having learned nothing from the wave of infections that has swept through Republican ranks.

The lesson I take is that our political dysfunction is even worse, our ability to rise to the occasion even lower, than I imagined. It’s hard to look at what’s happening now without feeling a sense of despair.

Quick Hits

Why k, not R, is the crucial number.

Contacting 206 on 206.

Covid-19 denial and fears of emasculation.

Not getting what “Macho Man” is about.

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Facing the Music

You better think it overYouTube

Well, not a nonlethal Rose Garden, anyway.

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2020年10月5日 星期一

On Tech: How did ‘ransomware’ get so bad?

Hackers are freezing information and demanding ransom. Who is behind this, and what can be done?

How did ‘ransomware’ get so bad?

A woman died from treatment delays after a hospital in Germany hit by a cyberattack was forced to turn away emergency patients. Hackers released private information, including Social Security numbers, from a Las Vegas school district. A coronavirus vaccine trial was bogged down in recent weeks when researchers were locked out of their data.

This is a small sample of the toll from ransomware attacks, in which hackers break into computer networks and freeze the digital information until the targeted organization or city pays for its release. Victims have two bad choices: Give in to extortion and hope the criminals didn’t do too much damage, or refuse and risk the hackers releasing or deleting essential information. It might also cost more than the ransom to rebuild computer systems.

I spoke to Charles Carmakal, an executive with the cybersecurity response company FireEye Mandiant, about the root causes and fixes for ransomware attacks.

What are the root causes of ransomware?

According to Carmakal, criminal organizations that typically stole bank account or credit card information found a quicker payday from extorting organizations by locking up their essential data. When victims paid, it encouraged the criminals.

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More organizations have bought insurance against cyberattacks, though that has been a double-edged sword. Insurance can help organizations, but it also guarantees a payout to criminals. And recently during the coronavirus pandemic, organizations are more vulnerable to ransomware because they are more dependent on digital systems, and computer security personnel working remotely may be less speedy or effective than usual.

How big is this problem?

Carmakal said his company was aware of more than 100 organizations that were dealing with ransomware attacks in September. That’s more than double the number from the same month in 2019. “We’re at a point that I feel is really unbearable,” Carmakal said.

Some U.S. officials worry that ransomware groups will try to freeze voter registration data or otherwise disrupt U.S. elections or sow uncertainty among voters.

Who is behind these attacks?

A vast majority of ransomware incidents today are committed by organized criminals who are motivated by financial gain and are often based in Russia or elsewhere in Eastern Europe, Carmakal said. A small fraction of ransomware attacks, notably ones called WannaCry and NotPetya that hit a number of global companies several years ago, are traced to foreign governments with political motivations.

What can law enforcement and the targets of attacks do?

Law enforcement agencies in the United States have stepped up efforts to identify, arrest and try the perpetrators of ransomware attacks. It’s not always easy, Carmakal said, because a good number of them operate in countries that don’t extradite people to the United States.

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It’s helpful for organizations that were victimized by ransomware attacks to share what they have learned about what happened, he said, because criminals tend to follow a similar blueprint. “Nobody wants to talk about the details of their breach,” Carmakal said, “but I can tell you it helps.”

Should organizations pay or refuse?

Carmakal said organizations should weigh the benefits and risks of paying. For some organizations, including hospitals, getting computer systems working again quickly is life or death, and they may have little alternative. But victims of ransomware attacks should also assess whether criminals will restore data and keep information private even if the ransoms are paid, and whether paying will encourage more attacks. There are, Carmakal said, no great choices.

Is ransomware a fad?

Ransomware will go away, Carmakal said, only if organizations that have been hacked stopped paying the ransoms, or if law enforcement caught enough of the criminals. “I don’t know how realistic that is,” he added.

Illustration by Jeron Braxton.

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Don’t pay too much attention to lawyers

(Sorry to all of the lawyers out there for that headline.) I’m talking specifically about a document prepared by Facebook’s lawyers arguing against any potential government attempt to split the company apart.

The Wall Street Journal reported that Facebook’s document said that any government attempt to force the company to ditch its Instagram and WhatsApp apps would be nearly impossible to achieve and exorbitantly expensive, and that it would discourage legitimate business deals.

Some of Facebook’s critics have said the company bought those apps in the past decade in an attempt to reduce competition. That type of activity breaks antitrust laws in the United States. I am not a lawyer, so I won’t assess the strength of Facebook’s arguments against undoing its acquisitions.

Documents like this are useful as a potential preview of Facebook’s defense if the government tries to break it up, but they can’t tell the whole story. That’s because real life is different from court life.

In court life, Uber can say that it’s not in the business of providing transportation, nor are drivers essential to what it does. This defies common sense, but there’s a semantic legal reasoning behind those arguments. Any antitrust case against Facebook will hinge on a lot of semantics, too.

But the courtroom is not the only place where decisions are made. Right now, members of Congress are thinking through whether laws need to be revised because they don’t fit our world of tech superpowers. Regulators around the globe are asking how Facebook and other digital gathering spots moderate what people say, and how they contribute to or detract from people’s relationships to one another and to their governments.

These are questions of law, yes, but they are also broad questions about what kind of world people want to live in. That’s why I tell myself not to get too fixated on legal fights. That’s not the only place where the action is.

Before we go …

  • WeChat keeps them together and divides them: My colleague Nicole Hong wrote about the role of WeChat, a Chinese messaging app that the White House is trying to ban, in helping Chinese immigrants in the United States connect with friends and relatives and collaborate on shared causes. But WeChat has also been a place where people can be swayed by Chinese government propaganda or misinformed about everything from the coronavirus to a popular bakery going out of business.
  • The conspiracies have come for LinkedIn: The Wall Street Journal found that believers in the false QAnon conspiracy are finding business opportunities on LinkedIn and using the professional networking site to spread misleading information. LinkedIn has responded in recent months by disabling searches for popular QAnon hashtags and kicking people off the site for breaking rules on sharing bogus information.
  • He’s not the person they are trying to hate: I love articles about how people handle getting mistaken online for famous people. Mel Magazine writes about a cybersecurity worker who gets angry Facebook messages but also perks like reservations at popular restaurants because he shares a name with Bill de Blasio, the mayor of New York City who is not exactly universally loved. (A warning that the article has some salty language.)

Hugs to this

Look at these fat bears! A park in Alaska holds an annual online competition to crown the brown bear who has most successfully gained weight for winter hibernation. I am partial to bear No. 812 for his all-body chunkiness.

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