2021年4月27日 星期二

Why you won’t have to suffer to save the planet

You can keep eating meat (though vegan cheese has gotten quite good).
David Tanis makes green chile buffalo cheeseburgers for his City Kitchen column.Karsten Moran for The New York Times
Author Headshot

By Paul Krugman

Opinion Columnist

Today's column was about reasons right-wing politicians believe they can lie to their supporters about what the Biden administration is up to, especially although not only with regards to climate policy. As I said, the Republican line is that Democrats are going to take away all the good things in life, when the reality is that the Biden team is very much not calling for any serious crimping of Americans' lifestyle.

But why does the current administration imagine that we can save the planet without making major sacrifices? A lot of the answer has to do with extraordinary innovations in energy technology that have taken place over the past dozen years, innovations that make achieving a low-emission economy look like a medium-difficulty technical problem rather than something that will require drastic changes in the way we live. The cost of electricity from wind power has fallen 70 percent since 2009; the cost of electricity from solar panels has fallen 89 percent.

Thinking about these developments, I remembered something I wrote back in 2010, when Democrats were trying unsuccessfully to push through legislation creating a cap-and-trade system to limit carbon emissions. The economic costs of such a system that model-builders estimated at the time were significant, although far from economy-killing. But I suggested that it was a good bet that the models overstated the economic costs of climate action, largely because they didn't allow for creativity. Indeed, what we got was innovation that transformed the whole proposition.

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Now, you can't always count on that kind of innovation coming along. A bit of autobiography here: I spent the summer of 1973, between my junior and senior years in college, working as a research assistant to William Nordhaus, who devised a brilliantly innovative way of modeling energy futures. (He later won the Nobel largely for his work integrating economic and climate models.) I passed most of that time in Yale's Geology Library, rounding up the best available estimates of how much alternatives to fossil fuels, oil in particular, would cost; these estimates were crucial inputs into Bill's model.

Unfortunately, over the next several decades we would learn that the engineers responsible for these estimates were wildly overoptimistic: Oil prices rose well above the levels at which alternatives like shale oil were supposed to have been competitive, but the substitutes kept not appearing. Another of my teachers, Martin Weitzman — who should also have won a Nobel! — quipped that the cost of alternatives to crude oil was always 20 percent above the current price of crude, whatever that price happened to be. We used to call it Weitzman's Law.

Weitzman's Law didn't finally snap until after around 2009, when first fracking, then renewable energy, saw plunging costs and surging production.

So we couldn't have counted on renewable energy getting so cheap so fast. But it did. Claims by conservatives that policies to reduce emissions would kill the economy never made much sense, but anyone making those claims now is living in a time warp, ignoring the way the energy landscape has changed.

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The truth is that given current technology we can resolve the climate crisis without major changes in the way we live. No, we won't have to give up meat. Although now that you mention it, meat alternatives have gotten immensely better over the past few years, and if you believe The Times's food desk — which you should, it may be the best part of the paper! — vegan cheese is getting seriously good. Innovation isn't just about energy production.

In other words, we can eat, drink and be merry while still saving the planet. Enjoy your grilled brussels sprouts.

Quick Hits

Nobody expected the renewable energy revolution.

Memories of technology forecasts past. Kahn was wildly overoptimistic.

When Bush and Cheney doubled down on fossil fuels.

Here comes cultured meat.

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Facing the Meat

There's a Simpson's episode for everythingYouTube

Not music this time.

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On Tech: To understand tech, look beyond the C.E.O.s

What the tech barons think matters. But imagine if those working in the trenches had a bigger voice.

To understand tech, look beyond the C.E.O.s

Max Guther

To understand what's happening in the world, we need to understand the (mostly) men who rule over global technology superpowers. But I also wish those leaders were less consequential and took up far less of our brain space.

What the 21st-century tech barons like Mark Zuckerberg, Jeff Bezos and Jack Ma believe and do matters. But when we focus on the chief executives, we sometimes neglect to recognize that regular people, not poobahs, make tech as we experience it. Volunteer Wikipedia editors, online community moderators, Uber couriers and schoolteachers translate and shape what the tech bosses create into the lived reality for the rest of us.

My colleagues and I write a lot about the handful of technology companies that shape our communications with one another, shopping habits, relationship with our government, work and culture. Mammoth institutions like tech giants aren't one-man shows, but the people at the top are extremely influential.

When we talk about the power of tech companies to change the world, what we really mean is the power of Bezos, Zuckerberg, Sundar Pichai, Tim Cook and Satya Nadella to influence billions of people — whether we (and they) are aware of it or not.

It wasn't a spreadsheet that decided to pay Amazon employees at least $15 an hour, and influenced wages at other employers. Nothing that momentous happens at Amazon unless Bezos wants it. Zuckerberg designed Facebook with him as absolute ruler, and his beliefs are fused into Facebook's bones.

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If Elon Musk hadn't pursued his mission to destroy fossil fuels, governments and major car companies probably would not now be planning to kill conventional cars. Conflicting corporate agendas plus personal vendettas between the chief executives of Apple and Facebook, and Amazon and Tesla, are steering the future of the internet and space exploration.

It's important to understand how these people tick and how their minds work because their decisions matter so much. And humans — even the humans running technology companies — are not robots. All our choices are shaped by who we are, our life experiences and our foibles.

But I also wish that the tech power brokers didn't matter so much, even at their own companies.

The people who moderate Reddit forums and weed out the worst abuses on Facebook probably understand better than tech C.E.O.s how internet companies' designs and policies shape our behavior online. Couriers working for delivery apps like DoorDash have more reasons than anyone to poke at the flaws of the software setting their wages. Teenagers creating TikTok dances influence what people do in their living rooms for fun.

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Technology bosses don't always foresee how people will respond to what they create. It is the people in the technology trenches who live the benefits of tech services and their pitfalls, maybe more than the Silicon Valley generals. If they had more influence over the technologies that we use, how might things be different?

It's essential but insufficient to get into the minds of the tech bosses at the tippy top of the world. As technology worms its way into every moment of our lives, there are zillions of mostly unknown people who take the beliefs and preferences of the bosses and remake them in ways that collectively affect all of us.

We can try to make sense of the world around us by getting in the minds of the leaders. Or we can pay attention to what the foot soldiers of digital life are doing. We need both.

If you don't already get this newsletter in your inbox, please sign up here.

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Before we go …

  • Where extremists can make big bucks: The livestreaming website Twitch has become a place for right-wing personalities to spread conspiracy theories about the election and coronavirus vaccines, my colleague Kellen Browning reported. In some cases, the streamers use the Amazon-owned site as a forum to promote their merchandise or solicit donations.
  • Lyft is quitting self-driving cars: The company is selling the operation that was working on driverless vehicle technology to a division of Toyota. Uber also handed off its self-driving car project a few months ago.Here's my newsletter from last year on why driverless car technology is harder than almost everyone expected. (The start-up I wrote about then, Voyage, also recently sold itself to a bigger company.)
  • Are online thrift stores encouraging excess shopping? People who buy secondhand clothing for resale have become a big draw on TikTok, YouTube and the shopping app Depop, Vox reported. But some of the sellers worry that the trend is making used clothing more expensive for people who need it.

Hugs to this

Watch a dog "win" a high school relay race in Utah. The human runner is Gracie Laney. The canine athlete is Holly, who broke free and couldn't resist sprinting on the track.

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