2021年5月7日 星期五

The Daily: ‘A Postcard From Our Future’

We asked a big question: "Do you want children?" Over 11,000 people responded.

By Lauren Jackson

Khori Michelle Petinaud holding her son, Carver Elijah Petinaud, during a gathering with friends in Brooklyn Bridge Park in March.Maridelis Morales Rosado for The New York Times

Hi everyone, Happy Friday. This week, our team has been thinking a lot about the census. A big, government-run count of the population might not sound like the most urgent or pressing issue at the moment. But the census results are a big deal.

Specifically, they revealed that the U.S. population grew at the second-slowest rate since the federal government started counting in 1790. And one of the main reasons was births. They are down a lot. In fact, they've gone down for six straight years. "It seems like just a nerdy little number," Sabrina Tavernise, a demographics correspondent for The New York Times, said on Tuesday's episode. "But the truth is it's incredibly important because it touches on almost every aspect of American life," including "immigration, the social safety net, health insurance, hospitals, elder care, the role of government."

So we decided to devote two episodes this week to the topic, digging into the import of this trend long term by comparing the United States and Japan, the "grayest" nation in the world. "We realized that looking to Japan for our second episode could be like a postcard from our own future," Alexandra Leigh Young, deputy producer for The Daily, said.

Ultimately, our shows didn't give one simple answer. Each country's demographic trajectories depend on millions of responses to a deeply personal question, one freighted with social expectations, ethical concerns and human instincts: "Do you want children?"

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So after our shows aired, we decided to pose that question to you. In more than 11,000 replies, some of you said yes, you wanted children, but were unsure how it would be possible with the "unbelievable, horrible, crushing weight of student loan debt." Others said you weren't sure, sharing your desire for long-term autonomy and half-joked fears that a future child could become an influencer. For this newsletter, we called women around the world to hear their perspectives. You can read some of their stories below.

Weighing the climate costs

Cecille Villanueva, 36, a meteorologist from San Juan, P.R., had been quietly questioning whether she wanted children for years. While pursuing a doctorate in atmospheric science, she worried about the carbon footprint of having a family. But after studying the effects of emissions on extreme weather patterns and tracking Hurricane Maria's devastation of Puerto Rico in 2017, her surety that she wouldn't have children "cemented."

Economic and political uncertainties in her home territory, which has been vying for statehood for years, have only affirmed her decision. "In this territory, we have an economic crisis, crippling debt and a tanking economy," she said. "I just wish those things were different."

A lack of federal support

Elspeth Sprenkle, 43, from Baltimore, went into her first marriage planning to have two children. But after a divorce in 2015, she found herself as a single mother with one young son, a full-time job as a corporate paralegal for Marriott and rising child care costs. Then the pandemic hit.

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"I was put on furlough from April 2020 with the hope I'd be back by June or July," she said. "But travel was paralyzed so there wasn't any cash flow. They let me go this past October," the same month she remarried.

As a deaf woman who relies on reading lips to communicate, Elspeth said mask mandates had made it difficult for her to find a new job. While she hopes one day there will be increased federal support for both universal child care and more accessible employment, in the meantime, she said, she had let go of any plans for another child.

Looking abroad for a solution

Lynn Hirose, 23, from Chiba, Japan, thinks having one child might be possible — thanks to a Roomba or an international move.

As a student at the University of Tokyo, Lynn sits between two worlds. "In Japan, balancing work and child rearing is really difficult. Many of my friends who aren't in university hope to quit their jobs after finding a man," she said, decisions that she noted were in response to a social expectation that women are responsible for the majority of domestic work in the country.

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But at Japan's most elite university, where male Japanese students outnumber female Japanese students four to one, Lynn said many of her peers weren't planning to compromise their career ambitions with the demands of child care. As Motoko Rich, Tokyo bureau chief for The New York Times, explained in our episode on Wednesday, Japan has one of the highest work force participation rates of women and one of the lowest domestic participation rates from men. As a result, Lynn said "more than 80 percent" of her female friends at the university didn't plan on having children.

"My male friends in U-Tokyo are aware of the problem and the need to balance a future partner's job with housework," she said, adding that while some "say they want to have a double-income family, that's not standard. Others say they want their wives to be waiting for them when they get home." (Lynn noted heterosexuality is considered the norm in Japan. "There is almost no support," for gay, lesbian or transgender people, she said.)

Still, Lynn holds out hope that having a child and pursuing a doctorate might be possible for her. When asked how she will make it work, she said she saw promise in innovations, like Roombas and washing machines, that are automating some housework. In the meantime, though, she's weighing a move abroad. "I'd like to work in a better environment than Japan in terms of gender equality and flexibility for working mothers."

'The most visual medium'

By Desiree Ibekwe and Mahima Chablani

Diana Nguyen worked for Marfa Public Radio before joining the Daily team.Sally Beauvais

There's an oxymoron that floats around the audio industry. "Radio is the most visual medium," Ira Glass, host of "This American Life," once said to college students, smiling at the joke. But for years, it stuck with Diana Nguyen, one of our producers responsible for getting The Daily onto the radio every morning.

After graduating from college, Diana originally set out to be a documentary filmmaker. But when she got a job working for Marfa Public Radio in West Texas, she realized that all the things she loved about documentaries were available to her in audio, too.

"I just love being transported into people's towns and worlds and heads," Diana said. And the saying about how visual radio is? "I think about that a lot when I think of documentary film versus audio journalism. You're hearing someone's voice and it really conjures up images, almost like reading a book. That's the connection for me. They are both very visual mediums but in their own right."

So in honor of Diana's two great loves, we asked her to share some watching and listening recommendations.

  • "The Act of Killing": This documentary, directed by Joshua Oppenheimer, is one of Diana's favorites. It's about perpetrators of the 1965 Indonesian genocide, and it artfully weaves in elements of surrealism to "bring you closer to the truth" about one of the worst mass murders of the 20th century. "It's a crazy way of doing a documentary and it's insanely beautiful and haunting," Diana said. "It's stuck with me for all these years, inspiring me to work toward rethinking what we do as journalists and documentarians."
  • "Short Cuts": This BBC radio series showcases short and often experimental documentary pieces sent in by freelancers. Each episode builds rich, scenic worlds around a single theme — like motherhood, the color blue, acts of love and quizzes. For Diana, its host, Josie Long, is a major draw. "She's so fun and such a joy to listen to. I think she's my favorite host of all time," she said.

On The Daily this week

Monday: Inside the world of complaint sites and what can be done about the "bathroom wall of the internet."

Tuesday: How America's declining birthrate could profoundly shape the nation's future.

Wednesday: Japan's population is aging and shrinking. It may offer a glimpse of the future for America.

Thursday: What does the decision about barring former President Trump from Facebook tell us about the company's Oversight Board?

Friday: Some experts believe the U.S. may never reach herd immunity from the coronavirus. We explore why.

For your weekend listening

That's it for The Daily newsletter. See you next week.

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On Tech: Computer chips are the new toilet paper

Really.

Computer chips are the new toilet paper

Robert Beatty

Most people need toilet paper and computer chips every day, and yet we rarely think about either of them.

That changed during the coronavirus pandemic when first bathroom rolls and then chips became scarce. Computer chips aren't so disposable, but they are equally essential as electronic brains for products like smartphones, cars, airplanes and most modern appliances. Chip shortages have stalled new car manufacturing, made rental cars harder to find and complicated business even for the dog washing industry.

I spoke to Don Clark, who has written about computer chips for years, about the importance of chips, why the U.S. government is obsessed with making more of them in America, and how a new chip mania is a revenge for the nerds.

Shira: What are computer chips used for?

Don: Computer chips are like tiny brains or memory receptacles. This makes them important for pretty much everything in modern life. The obvious places are electronics like computers, smartphones, video game consoles and voice-activated speakers.

But chips are also in products that are used to track milk production of dairy cows and to make sure produce in trucks stays at an appropriate temperature. A modern car can have several thousand chips, including for the ignition, brakes and entertainment system. This year, the production of $50,000 cars is being held up because of a lack of $1 computer chips.

Right, how did chips lead to a freeze in car manufacturing?

Last year, when the pandemic first hit, automakers estimated that many people wouldn't want to buy cars, and they cut orders for computer chips. When it turned out that car sales increased, the companies tried to order more chips on the fly. But the chip manufacturers had already moved on. They had shifted production to fill orders for products like phones and game consoles.

Are chip shortages unusual?

No, but shortages are usually confined to one particular type of chip. What's unusual about this year is there's not enough of many different kinds of computer chips, because of a combination of some disruptions related to the pandemic and overwhelming demand for more and more chips for everything.

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To give just one example, each new smartphone with a 5G internet connection has 100 little components in it called filters that connect to all the different frequencies. That's 100 computer chips for just a single function.

When will the shortages improve?

Companies are trying to crank out more chips, but it's difficult to react quickly. Chip companies are also trying to stop customers, including car companies, from ordering double the number of chips they really need just to be sure they get some. But shortages will probably last until 2022 and could get worse before they get better. That's partly because many scarce chips come from older factories that are hard to upgrade.

Congress and President Biden seem very likely to back billions of taxpayer dollars to make more computer chips in the United States. Why?

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Shortages of products like personal protective equipment made in China have gotten the public and policymakers to discuss the downsides of having essential products made outside the United States.

Many advanced computer chips are made in Taiwan, and that makes the Pentagon in particular nervous about not being able to get essential computer chips if relations between Taiwan and China get worse. And the U.S. government wants to be more self reliant in the case of emergencies, like earthquakes, in Taiwan.

Another issue is global competitiveness. Countries including Ireland, Taiwan and Israel give boatloads of government incentives to factories that produce chips. Intel, the big American computer chip company, doesn't really need U.S. taxpayers' money. But it wants to ensure that the company isn't doing vastly worse by making its chips in the United States.

Forgive me, but the computer chip industry is very nerdy. How do people in the industry feel about being such a hot topic?

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Yes, this has been the boring old industry of tech, like steel making. That's changing, partly because of the attention on chip shortages but that's not the only reason.

I wrote an article on Friday about the amount of investments in new computer chip companies — about eight times the dollars invested in 2016. Young people who might have formed software start-ups a few years ago are now choosing to start chip companies. There is a lot of interest and excitement in chips now, and the people in the industry feel that it's nice to be seen as really important.

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Before we go …

  • Not a great look for internet service providers: An analysis by the New York attorney general found that internet providers including AT&T and Comcast funded an effort that yielded millions of fake comments opposing net neutrality rules, my colleague David McCabe wrote. And from February: An explanation of net neutrality and the long war over it.
  • Also not great: The Markup reported that pharmaceutical companies find potential patients on Facebook by using drug ads to target people based on their interests in topics like bourbon or oxygen or their involvement in a depression and bipolar support group.
  • Yes, better online safety for all! Google said that it would start requiring people to take an added security measure, such as responding to a smartphone notification, to sign into Gmail and other accounts. It's great that Google is making this the default; here's why adding a verification to log into our digital accounts is the most important thing we can do to protect our security.

Hugs to this

The saga of red-tailed hawks named Billy and Lilly, and babies Alba and Eli, "is one of regeneration and joy, with a tinge of sadness and some dead rat carcasses."

We want to hear from you. Tell us what you think of this newsletter and what else you'd like us to explore. You can reach us at ontech@nytimes.com.

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