2021年7月9日 星期五

Wonking out: mRNA and the meaning of life

Americans are suddenly feeling good. Why?
Emile Ducke for The New York Times
Author Headshot

By Paul Krugman

Opinion Columnist

Alert! Wonk warning! This is an additional email that goes deeper than usual into the economics and some technical stuff.

Happy days are here again. No, really. Gallup has been asking Americans since the beginning of 2008 whether they are "thriving." The percentage answering yes hit a low point in the depths of the 2008 financial crisis and again during the worst of the Covid-19 pandemic. But it has soared in recent months, to 59.2 percent, its highest level ever:

Striving to thrive.Gallup

For what it's worth, Gallup's number deserves to be taken seriously. The question "Are you thriving?" is pretty close to the question "Overall, how satisfied are you with your life?," which is widely used by eminent scholars like Angus Deaton and reported on a regular basis by international agencies. So the surging number of Americans who say that they're thriving is meaningful, and it's worth asking for an explanation.

What do we know about life satisfaction? At an individual level, it's overwhelmingly about relationships and health (especially mental health). Income is a factor but a relatively minor one. Americans differ vastly from one another in how happy they are with their lives, but most of that variation reflects personal factors rather than money: There are miserable billionaires and cheerful families barely scraping by.

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When we're looking at either changes in national life satisfaction or differences among countries, however, the social aspects of happiness tend to average out, so income stands out more clearly. There is a strong correlation across countries between per capita income and life satisfaction, although with some interesting deviations:

Rich is better.Our World in Data

Notably, citizens of Nordic nations like Denmark seem more satisfied with their lives than you might expect given their incomes. The security of a strong social safety net may have a lot to do with this success story. They may also do better than we do at work-life balance:

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All work and no play takes a toll.OECD

OK, I can't resist mentioning a report on the evils of socialism from Donald Trump's economic advisers, who insisted that life must be bad in the Nordics because it's hard for workers to afford pickup trucks:

The pickup theory of value.Council of Economic Advisers

You might ask why Costa Rica appears to be so happy and Japan less happy than Mexico. The answer is that I don't know enough to weigh in on those questions.

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Anyway, the economy matters. But it's probably not the main reason for surging life satisfaction in America right now. Why? Because we did an impressively good job — not perfect, by any means, but impressive all the same — of supporting families through the hardships of the pandemic slump. Government aid was, in fact, so generous that personal incomes on average actually rose in the pandemic:

We got by with a little help from our ... government.FRED

So what does account for the happiness boom? My best guess is that over the course of the pandemic the social factors that hugely affect personal life satisfaction, but on average usually don't change much over time, went through huge swings. For many months Americans were cooped up in their homes, unable to hang out with friends, in some cases unable to visit even close family. Then came the vaccines, and for many of us, life took a big step back toward normal.

People being what they are, the joy of normality will probably fade over time as we get reaccustomed to our old routines. And there will surely be a huge plunge in happiness if the refusal of many Americans to get vaccinated leads to a Covid resurgence.

But for now, we're feeling pretty good.

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On Tech: Does Big Tech make good neighbors?

We want our online orders, and we want them now. But we don't seem ready for Big Tech moving in, too.

Does Big Tech make good neighbors?

We want our online orders, and we want them now. But we don't seem ready for Big Tech moving in, too.

Irene Suosalo

On Tech is taking a vacation next week. We'll be back in your inboxes on Monday, July 19.

Digital life reaches far beyond our screens into the real world. That means we must figure out how to live with the impacts of technology in our backyards.

It isn't always easy. Some residents of towns near e-commerce processing centers complain about traffic, pollution and safety risks from delivery vans and trucks. Communities where water is in short supply are worried about the needs of internet computer centers that use water to keep equipment cool. Neighbors sometimes gripe about noise or garbage from nearby commercial kitchens and mini-warehouses for delivery services like Uber Eats.

Conflicts over shared space and limited public resources are nothing new. But we are increasingly living side-by-side with the physical manifestations of the technology services that we want and need. And I'm not sure that we are equipped to deal with them as our new neighbors.

Not so long ago, technology's impact on our physical world wasn't quite so obvious. Sure, any website needed computing hubs, and e-commerce companies had warehouses and delivery drivers. What has changed is the rapid growth in demand for all of these things and our desire for more technology-enabled conveniences faster than ever, leading to added stresses on public infrastructure.

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To meet demand, Amazon and other internet shopping companies have been opening merchandise warehouses and package distribution centers closer to where we live. That brings noise, traffic and pollution into more neighborhoods as a trade-off for speedier deliveries. Companies that deliver burritos, booze or bananas to our door likewise need to have real estate and transportation close to our homes and work. And the effects of climate change have made the competition for energy and water more urgent.

No individual or company is solely at fault for this situation. Our collective demand for more online everything is to blame, and the public, our elected officials and companies need to confront this new reality far more directly.

An article this week by The Information (subscription required) about clashes over Amazon package operations in Milford, Mass., mentioned that the company formed a task force last year to address communities' concerns about the repercussions of its delivery operations. Milford also appointed two liaison officers to share residents' concerns with Amazon.

I don't know if that's substantive collaboration or window dressing, but it feels like a good first step to acknowledge that changing the places we live comes with tough questions about whether new neighbors are doing more good than harm.

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Again, these types of concerns aren't new. People would probably prefer to have an Amazon warehouse in town over a garbage dump or a polluting factory. That doesn't invalidate citizens' worries about the trade offs.

Last year, I spoke with Richard Mays, the mayor of The Dalles, Ore., a town that is home to multiple computer data centers. He said that there was disagreement among residents over whether those operations contributed enough in taxes, job opportunities and other benefits compared with what they take in the form of stress on roads and the energy grid.

Our conversation stuck with me because it got to the heart of the issue: Are these tech companies, many of them now in our backyards and on our streets, contributing more than they're taking?

It's a wildly subjective assessment. And the drawbacks from newcomers, especially high-profile companies, might be harder to swallow. You might have put up with traffic from the office park nearby, but a similar level of congestion could feel worse if it's because of a DoorDash delivery hub.

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Our more tech-dependent lives call for more awareness by the public and smart public policy to effectively manage the ripple effects. We all have a stake in figuring out how to greet the future that we want while keeping intact the communities that we love.

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Before we go …

  • The White House vs. corporate bigness: President Biden outlined an executive order on Friday to target industries where a few companies have a lot of power, including in technology, my colleagues David McCabe and Cecilia Kang report. David Leonhardt wrote in The Morning newsletter about why many economists believe a lack of competition is holding back the U.S. economy and wages.
  • How you can help prevent a cyberattack at work: The Washington Post walks through warning signs in emails or phone calls (!) that criminals could be trying to break into your company's computer systems. One tip: Beware emails that appear to be from a boss asking for account credentials. (Also note that cyberattacks are never one person's fault but are a collective problem.)
  • Time to cash in on those old Pokémon cards: The trading cards based on the 1990s video game characters have skyrocketed in value recently, "fueled by nostalgia, new ways to sell online and a surplus of free time during the pandemic," Bloomberg News reports. Listings of Pokémon cards on eBay increased 1,046 percent in the first three months of 2021.

Hugs to this

Did you catch the pure moment of joy (the twirl!) when the 14-year-old Zaila Avant-garde won the Scripps National Spelling Bee? She is also a talented basketball player who can dribble six balls at once.

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