2021年12月3日 星期五

The Daily: The Threats to Amazon

Why the labor shortage isn't the biggest challenge facing the company.

Welcome to the weekend, and welcome to December. We're heading into the holidays — and the third calendar year of this pandemic (ugh). We're sorry that the virus, and all of its mutations, is still dominating your newsfeed.

Thanks for writing in to share your favorite Daily episodes of 2021. We'll be featuring some of your responses in our last newsletter of the year. And if you still have a favorite to share, you can let us know here.

Today in the newsletter, we're looking closer at Wednesday's episode and asking: What are the biggest threats to Amazon's business model? Then, we have listening recommendations to get you up to speed on Omicron.

The Big Idea: The Threats to Amazon

The Daily strives to reveal a new idea in every episode. Below, we go deeper on one of those from our show this week.

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An Amazon warehouse in Kent, Wash., last year.Ruth Fremson/The New York Times

In the circus that is the American economy, Amazon is a magician — making inane objects appear suddenly, bewilderingly. A dog frisbee. Command hooks. Another screwdriver, because somehow you still don't have the right one.

Like any good magician, Amazon has mastered hiding the trick: Its thousands of employees, fulfillment centers and rapidly moving conveyor belts remain out of sight. As you heard on Wednesday's show, maintaining this illusion requires a small army of employees: Amazon hired roughly half a million people in the last year, pushing its work force to more than 1.2 million globally, up more than 50 percent from a year ago. But high turnover rates along with a nationwide labor shortage have caused headaches for the company in recent months.

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We ended the episode with a question: Does the current labor shortage reveal challenges for Amazon's business model in the long term? Here's what experts have to say.

A big problem that's a "short-term concern"

"We have a substantial issue of tight labor markets in the United States right now that is manifesting itself from psychotherapists to gardeners and from investment analysts to fast food workers," said Lawrence Summers, former U.S. secretary of the Treasury. He attributed the labor shortage to ongoing pandemic health concerns, an aging labor force and workplace changes that had caused workers to reimagine their lifestyle.

"I think it is a source of wage inflation pressure and unless the Fed takes very substantial action, it is likely to be with us for quite some time," Mr. Summers added, noting that it could be a "few years" before the labor market rebalanced.

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Still, some experts say the current labor shortage is likely to be only a short-term challenge for Amazon. "We have to ask the question: Are they so big that they're exhausting the labor pool?" said Marshall Van Alstyne, a business professor at Boston University and co-author of the book "Platform Networks." "They're not."

Mr. Van Alstyne argues that there are still untapped sources of labor that Amazon could continue to attract with competitive wages. A 2019 report from the Brookings Institution found that low-wage workers made up 44 percent of the American labor force (at the time, roughly 53 million people). Their median hourly wage was $10.22. In the short term, he argues, Amazon will continue to attract these workers from other industries with its starting wages of $15 an hour, even as competition for workers inflates wages across the country.

But the labor pool isn't infinite. With Amazon's high employee turnover rate, it would take the company three decades to exhaust the current low-wage labor pool in the United States (presuming all of those people are willing to work for the company in the first place). So in the medium term, the company will most likely look to another solution to address labor instability: automation.

"If they can succeed in automating more low-level labor tasks, they will be less dependent on human labor," Mr. Van Alstyne said. Robots are used throughout Amazon already, and the company is racing to expand their use in an effort to meet the punishing demands of Prime delivery logistics. But Amazon's efforts to automate could open the company up to additional liabilities.

The looming threats to Amazon

For Amazon robots to be able to stock, select, pack and ship goods, all of those products need to be inside the company's fulfillment centers, allowing Amazon to control the entire delivery process instead of outsourcing shipment to partners. Amazon is rapidly building warehouses to bring even more products in-house — a decision that could strengthen the legal case that they are liable for the safety of those products.

Lawmakers are increasingly agitating to reform Section 230, the provision of the Communications Decency Act that shields platform companies from liability for harmful content on their platforms. While the provision is most often considered in regard to hate speech and misinformation on social media platforms, reforms to Section 230 could also open Amazon up to liability for harmful or defective products sold on its platform. With more and more products stored in-house, it will be increasingly difficult for Amazon to legally argue that it is simply a third-party platform and not the seller.

Complicating these third-party claims are Amazon's ambitions as a retailer — ambitions that Matthew Hytinen, 41, a former vendor manager at Amazon who left the country in 2015, argues are monopolistic.

"How much should the owner of the marketplace be able to leverage and control all our data?" Mr. Hytinen asked, adding that complete visibility into customer purchasing habits allows Amazon to identify its most in-demand products and then manufacture, advertise and sell its own version, often outselling its competitors.

"The problem is that it's unfair entry," Mr. Van Alstyne said. "I do anticipate that will be addressed in subsequent legislation."

Data privacy regulations, most actively being pursued in the European Union, could complicate a critical pillar of the company's business. Amazon is one of the largest cloud computing companies in the world and is responsible for over a third of the country's data storage market. Revenue from Amazon Web Services has grown almost 39 percent from a year ago, up to $16.11 billion in the last quarter — and any regulation that creates red tape on the storage and use of data could affect revenue for the company in this vertical.

But, ultimately, Mr. Summers thinks the biggest threats to Amazon remain unknown.

"Usually it's the threats you don't see that get you, not the threats you do see. IBM was brought down by the personal computer. Microsoft was brought down by the internet," he said. "My guess is the biggest threats to Amazon come less from changes to public policy than changes in the technology environments that we don't foresee right now."

And just for fun, here's Clementine, our host Sabrina Tavernise's dog, with the frisbee from Amazon Prime that you heard about in Wednesday's episode. Sabrina Tavernise

What you need to know about Omicron

A technician working in a laboratory at the Nelson R. Mandela School of Medicine in Durban, South Africa.Joao Silva/The New York Times

On Tuesday, we had the Times reporter Apoorva Mandavilli on the show to talk about the knowns and unknowns of Omicron, the latest — and seemingly hardest to pronounce — variant of the coronavirus. News moves fast, and the last week has been filled with reports of new discoveries of the variant across the world and what it means for the efficacy of the available vaccines. Our Well desk even published an expert guide on how to deal with the uncertainty that the variant has caused. As we await more news on what this latest development means, here are some recent articles recorded by the narrated articles team about the coronavirus.

What the Future May Hold for the Coronavirus and Us: Even for a virus, evolution is a long game, and our relationship with Covid-19 is still in its infancy. We are extremely unlikely to eradicate the virus, scientists say, and what the next few years — and decades — hold is difficult to predict. But the legacy of past epidemics, as well as some basic biological principles, provides clues to where we could be headed.

Did Covid Change How We Dream?: As the novel coronavirus spread and much of the world moved toward isolation, dream researchers began rushing to design studies and set up surveys. The first thing almost everyone noticed was that for many people, their dream worlds seemed suddenly larger and more intense.

Inside the C.D.C.'s Pandemic 'Weather Service': The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention created an ambitious, multimillion-dollar center to predict future outbreaks. However, as election polls, weather apps and fantasy-football enthusiasts routinely demonstrate, the most mathematically rigorous forecasts can still be wrong, just as the sloppiest guesswork can, by pure chance, be right.

On The Daily this week

Monday: Inside the prosecution's winning strategy in the case of the three men convicted of killing Ahmaud Arbery.

Tuesday: What we know — and don't yet know — about the Omicron variant.

Wednesday: How the labor shortage strikes at the heart of Amazon's approach to workers.

Thursday: We explore the arguments made in the most important abortion case in decades.

Friday: We chart the life, career and legacy of Stephen Sondheim, the Broadway songwriting titan who died last week.

That's it for the Daily newsletter. See you next week.

Have thoughts about the show? Tell us what you think at thedaily@nytimes.com.

Were you forwarded this newsletter? Subscribe here to get it delivered to your inbox.

Love podcasts? Join The New York Times Podcast Club on Facebook.

By Lauren Jackson and Desiree Ibekwe.

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2021年12月1日 星期三

The T List: Holiday Gift Guide, Part I

Kitschy ornaments, handwoven throws, a pine-scented essential oil — and more.

Welcome to the T List, a newsletter from the editors of T Magazine. For this week and the next, we've turned it into a holiday gift guide, with recommendations from T staffers on what we're coveting for ourselves this season, as well as the gifts we're thinking of giving our friends and loved ones. Sign up here to find us in your inbox every Wednesday. You can always reach us at tlist@nytimes.com.

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SCENT OF THE SEASON

An Essential Oil Made From Your Christmas Tree

Left: an essential oil made from a Christmas tree by Flamingo Estate, $350. Email trees@flamingoestate.com to schedule a pickup.Courtesy of Flamingo Estate

For 11 months of the year, I pretend I don't like Christmas, but when I smell fresh pine needles for the first time each December — wafting from a stand selling wreaths on a New York street corner, maybe, or from a garland on a friend's mantelpiece — the illusion is quickly shattered. Few scents are as lush and woodsy, or as evocative of cold nights warmed by candles and wine. This year, Flamingo Estate, the Los Angeles-based food and wellness company, is offering a new service through which it will pick up your Christmas tree from your door (if you live in either New York or L.A.) in late December and steam distill its branches to create an aromatic essential oil that will then be mailed back to you in an elegant glass bottle — meaning that your home can smell like a pine forest through the end of winter and beyond. Any waste left over from the process will be used as compost for the brand's garden in Highland Park.

SWEET TREATS

Arty Chocolate and Japanese-Inspired Candies

From left: Casa Bosques's holiday bundle, $60, casabosques.co; a chocolate bar from La Nef, from $8, lanefchocolate.com; crystal candies from Balbosté, about $34, shop.balboste.com.From left: Courtesy of Casa Bosques; Courtesy of La Nef; Courtesy of Balbosté

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What better way to sweeten the holiday season than with actual sweets? For the artistically inclined chocolate lovers in your life, try a bar from the small-batch confectionary La Nef Chocolate. Each one is crafted in Bath, Maine, and wrapped in packaging that features the work of a local artist. I'm partial to the dark chocolate with nonpareils, and art by the painter Caroline Boylston. (A portion of the proceeds from this bar go to Spindleworks, a nonprofit arts center for adults with disabilities.) Also worth a taste and look are the ginger, bay leaf and chamomile flower bars that are part of Casa Bosques's Makers Series ($20 each) — they were a collaboration between the Mexico City-based chocolatier and the chef and artist DeVonn Francis, and all proceeds from them support Black trans people via the Okra Project — or the brand's three seasonal bars, which include a crisp, spicy Speculoos cookie covered in rich dark chocolate and in packaging printed with photography taken by Casa Bosques founder Rafael Prieto on his travels. For a different kind of treat entirely, consider a box of Balbosté's crystals, inspired by the Japanese gemlike candy kohakutou — or its white-chocolate-topped matcha fortune cookies (complete with personalized messages within), so delicate they can only be purchased in-person, at the Balbosté store in Paris.

HIGH CULTURE

Glass Pipes in Fun Hues and Fruity Forms

Flower by Edie Parker Glass Fruit Pipes, from $95, edieparkerflower.com.Courtesy of Edie Parker

In 2019, Brett Heyman, the designer behind the fashion accessory brand Edie Parker, best known for its acrylic clutches with a tongue-in-cheek sense of humor, launched Flower by Edie Parker, which offers lighters, rolling trays and other cannabis-related ephemera, all in vibrant hues like aquamarine, periwinkle and bubble gum pink. These borosilicate glass pipes from the line — modeled after grapes, a banana, an orange and, my favorite, a cherry — double as cutesy home objects that can be on display even while parents are visiting. With Flower, Heyman aims to further destigmatize the use of cannabis and support criminal reform efforts, so if you're looking to give back this season, consider purchasing one of these fun Flower T-shirts or totes, 15 percent of proceeds from which will, depending on the item, be donated either to the Last Prisoner Project, Feeding America, the National Center for Transgender Equality or the Women's Prison Association.

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DAINTY DECORATIONS

Kitschy Ornaments and Handcrafted Garlands

John Derian Ornaments, from $9, johnderian.com, and Toast Ginkgo Dip Dyed Paper Garland, $26, us.toa.st.Clockwise from top left: Wikitoria/Moraski Ornaments (2); Wikitoria Ornaments; Impuls Ornaments (2); Courtesy of TOAST

After years of minimalist studio living, I am now the lucky tenant of an apartment with a sitting room — one with dark-wood paneling and leaded glass windows offering sometimes-snowy views — that all but demands some holiday decorations. After much scrolling, I've landed on these paper garlands with dip-dyed petals shaped like ginkgo leaves, which are handmade by artisans in Delhi and available from the British brand Toast — and on a few kitschy, antique-style ornaments from John Derian. New for this year are a range of mushrooms and various New York City-centric options, including an especially lustrous Statue of Liberty. They're sure to be crowd-pleasers so, having made the rare effort, I may just have to throw a party.

URBAN FARMING

DIY Mushrooms

Mushrooms grown from Smallhold's grow kits, from $34, and "Mushrooms in the Middle: A Smallhold Cookbook," $30, smallhold.com.Phyllis Ma (mushrooms); Laura Murray (book cover)

By Caroline Newton

Mushrooms may be an it-food among health-conscious types right now, but a delivery of funghi will still make for a delightfully unexpected holiday gift. The New York-based company Smallhold is on a mission to decrease the distance its mushrooms have to travel to reach their customers, and has installed miniature organic mushroom farms in the Standard, East Village hotel, the Lower Eastside Girls Club and various other locations across the city. It also offers grow kits that allow the recipient to grow mushrooms in their own kitchen. Each one comes with a starter block of either blue oyster or lion's mane mushrooms that, if tended to correctly (all an amateur cultivator will need is water, a rubber-band and a knife), can yield up to two pounds of fresh mushrooms over the course of two or three flushes, or crops. Given all that bounty, you might consider pairing a kit with the brand's new cookbook, "Mushrooms in the Middle," which upgrades the food from side dish to main event.

ON THE COUCH

Four Sumptuous Throws

From left: Attersee Herringbone Wrap, $595, shopattersee.com; Ezcaray Matisse throw, $325, goodeeworld.com; Blacksaw Icon Reversible throw, $398, blacksaw.co; Jonathan Saunders Nani Blanket, $650, matchesfashion.com.From left: Courtesy of Attersee; Courtesy of Goodee World; Courtesy of Blacksaw; Courtesy of Saunders

At my childhood home, cozying up on the couch for a seasonal movie has become as much a holiday tradition as decorating the tree — we're a "Christmas Story" family — and essential to the viewing experience is the perfect throw: Ezcaray, a textile house based in Spain, hand-weaves its brightly hued Matisse throws from a blend of fibers, including mohair and wool. Jonathan Saunders, the fashion-turned-furniture designer, offers a cheerful striped blanket (named after his design assistant, Nani) with contrasting colored panels. For a more neutral option, there's Blacksaw's reversible black-and-white Icon throw, which is made from baby alpaca and was designed in collaboration with the Los Angeles-based artist John Zabawa, or the Herringbone wrap from Attersee, which has a smart leather trim and looks just as chic tossed on a chair as it does worn over the shoulders.

LUCKY CHARMS

Letter Pendants Made of Diamonds, Quartz and Gold

Foundrae's Sealed Gemstone Initial Pendants, $1,950 each, foundrae.com.Courtesy of Foundrae

The striking gold medallions from the New York-based jewelry brand Foundrae, which are often cast with astrological or mythological symbols, all have a slightly supernatural feel, as if they might be vessels inhabited by powerful but benign spirits. The line's sealed initial charms, though, are especially otherworldly, and one would make a perfect gift if you're looking to really treat a loved one this month. Composed of a diamond-inlaid gold letter set within two crystalline planes of quartz sealed within a gold casing, each piece brings to mind an ancient creature preserved in amber, or perhaps a part of a long-lost missive frozen in ice.

TABLE TRIMMINGS

An Ice Bucket to Keep the Punch Cold, and Glasses to Serve It In

From left: Carolina Irving & Daughters' Mini Ice Bucket, $65, ci-daughters.com; Sirius Glassworks' Iridescent Nassau Cup, $60 each, mociun.com.From left: Courtesy of Carolina Irving & Daughters, Courtesy of Mociun.

By Samantha Andriano

For me, the inability to have people over for much of the past two years because of the pandemic has now inspired a renewed interest in entertaining in my apartment, which has meant refreshing my tableware — and all the better if the pieces themselves reflect interpersonal bonds. This mini ice bucket from Carolina Irving & Daughters — founded by the textile designer and her two daughters, Olympia and Ariadne — was inspired by medieval pottery and crafted in Portugal. And the iridescent Nassau cups from Sirius Glassworks in Ontario mark the first-ever collaboration between the glassblower Peter Gudrunas, who founded the brand in the 1970s, and his daughter, the artist and filmmaker Iris Fraser-Gudrunas. They're the kind of special, handmade pieces that your guests will want to own, too, and you'd be a hero to oblige them.

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