2021年12月17日 星期五

The Daily: The “Total Breakdown” in Afghanistan

American troops have left Afghanistan. But ongoing American influence is still shaping the country.

Welcome to the weekend — and to the holidays. In our last newsletter of 2021, we wanted to look more closely at one of the biggest stories on The Daily this year: the fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban.

First, we explore the ongoing influence of American policy in the country. Then, we revisit some of our most powerful episodes of the year, including our Afghanistan coverage. We hope wherever you are, you have a happy and safe holiday season.

The big idea: What if the longest war isn't over?

The Daily strives to reveal a new idea in every episode. Below, we go deeper on one of those from our show this week.

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A patient talking with doctors at a Red Crescent mobile health clinic in Shah Wali Kot, Afghanistan.Jim Huylebroek for The New York Times

People fell from the sky, their bodies reduced to small dots on the horizon, blurred by plane exhaust and the high August heat.

In a viral video taken on the tarmac at Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul, the world watched as Afghans clung in vain to an ascending plane, attempting to escape the coming Taliban rule. The video captured the fear that reigned in Afghanistan as American troops withdrew from the country — a fear of Taliban brutality and a reversion to their last harsh, authoritarian rule.

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But months after the American withdrawal, the Taliban have floundered for international legitimacy. Now, another fear has settled on Afghanistan: the fear of starvation as the country's economy has all but collapsed, fueling one of the world's worst humanitarian crises. An estimated 22.8 million people — more than half the country's population — are expected to face potentially life-threatening food insecurity this winter.

The United States has publicly tried to wash its hands of ongoing responsibility in Afghanistan, with President Biden justifying the chaotic withdrawal of troops by saying he "was not going to extend this forever war." But American influence is still shaping the lives, and livelihoods, of millions of Afghans in the form of economic sanctions — revealing that there will be no neat ending to America's longest war. Below, we take a closer look at the impact of the sanctions discussed on Wednesday's show.

Ongoing American influence in Afghanistan

For years, Afghanistan was an aid state. American and international assistance made up 45 percent of the country's G.N.P. and funded 75 percent of the government's budget, including health and education services. But with the Taliban takeover, that aid — and that cash circulating in the Afghan economy — has nearly vanished.

As the Taliban took over the country, the Biden administration froze Afghanistan's $9.5 billion in foreign reserves and stopped sending the shipments of U.S. dollars upon which Afghanistan's central bank relied. The American goal was simple: Keep cash from getting into Taliban hands. But the effects of this policy were far more complicated. While the American sanctions were intended to punish the Taliban for their military takeover and limit their ability to establish governing legitimacy, the result has been a wholesale economic collapse in the country.

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"You now have a crisis in virtually every dimension," Anthony H. Cordesman, emeritus chair in strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said. "There's now an aid crisis, a financial crisis, job crisis, governance crisis and legal crisis."

With billions of dollars in state assets frozen abroad, Afghan banks have been paralyzed and the country faces a dire cash shortage that has crippled business, impeded humanitarian services, sent food and fuel prices soaring and triggered a widespread hunger crisis.

The widespread hunger is the most devastating sign of the economic crash, and, as winter approaches, pressure is building on the U.S. government to reverse course.

The impact of sanctions

In late September, the Biden administration issued two sanction exemptions for humanitarian organizations. But some have criticized these exemptions as being unclear — and insufficient. In a country where the boundaries of government entities are nebulous, some humanitarian organizations and donors fear they may face inadvertent sanction violations by continuing to support critical public services. Specifically, exemptions do not apply to paying employees like teachers in government-run schools and doctors in state hospitals.

The sanctions are also hampering general humanitarian operations. Many foreign banks that aid organizations rely on to transfer funds into Afghanistan have cut ties to Afghan banks. And the liquidity crisis severely restrains the amount that organizations can withdraw to pay vendors or aid workers.

David Miliband, a former British foreign secretary who is now president of the International Rescue Committee, questioned the argument for sanctions, which have been framed as essential to American security.

"The No. 1 threat of the failure to lift sanctions is to Afghan lives, but the No. 2 threat is to American reputation," he said. "No. 3, there is a threat to American interests because if the implosion continues in Afghanistan, there are regional reverberations."

"The lesson of the modern world is that instability anywhere has ripple effects. This is actually not a complicated security question," he added.

American officials insist that sanctions will remain in place and argue that multilateral aid from the United Nations and member states can support Afghans as the winter looms. The U.S. government has offered over $450 million in humanitarian assistance and has pushed for multilateral aid for Afghans.

"U.S. aid is, of course, not sufficient to address Afghanistan's looming needs," Ambassador Jeffrey DeLaurentis, a senior adviser with the U.S. mission to the United Nations, said at a Security Council briefing. "We welcome creative solutions from the international community to help mitigate these challenges in a way that limits undue benefit to the Taliban and sanctioned individuals."

Mr. Milband said: "We don't need to be that creative. It's very, very clear why a million children and nine million Afghans" are on the brink of famine.

"My political judgment is that if people starve in Afghanistan, it won't be the Taliban who get the blame," he said. "It will be the West which gets the blame."

From the Daily team: A look back at 2021

Children flying handmade plastic kites on a hillside graveyard overlooking Kabul, Afghanistan.David Guttenfelder for The New York Times

It was a year that, at times, felt indistinguishable from the one before. The Daily spent it covering a crisis that felt both extraordinary and mundane: We chronicled coronavirus vaccinations, followed the rise of variants and embedded in schools most affected by the pandemic.

But our team also sought out the stories that stood apart: the insurrection at the Capitol, the evolution of cryptocurrency and the fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban. We told these stories through the voices of people who had witnessed them firsthand. We went inside an Oklahoma abortion clinic, watched Broadway's reopening and investigated the rise of the German far right.

It has been another big year, and we're grateful you stayed with us throughout. If you missed any episodes, we've compiled a list of what we think are our best shows of the year. But we also asked you what your favorite episodes were. Here's what you said (these responses have been lightly edited):

  • "I live in Canada and sometimes it's hard to understand why some topics are so controversial (guns, abortion, health care), but the episode 'They Don't Understand That We're Real People' stood out because it highlighted the real impact the law had on people's lives. I got so emotional listening to their stories that I had to take a break from work." — Rushika Khatkar, 23, from Ottawa, Canada
  • "My husband thinks my listening to The Daily is a financial liability because I regularly want to send money to the various people you feature." — Carolyn Cohen, 52, from New York City, who cited our episodes on NFTs and the story of "N," the young Afghan girl hiding from the Taliban, as some of the best shows of the year.

On The Daily this week

Wednesday: The descent of Afghanistan into a humanitarian and economic catastrophe.

Thursday: How increased access to one medication could fundamentally change the debate over abortion across the country.

Friday: What to expect from the next phase of the pandemic.

That's it for the Daily newsletter. See you next year.

Have thoughts about the show? Tell us what you think at thedaily@nytimes.com.

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2021年12月15日 星期三

Overturning Roe will make miscarriage care worse

The worst day of your life could become more painful and more dangerous.
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Jessica Grose On Parenting

December 15, 2021

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Eleanor Davis

Roe v. Wade is in peril. That could make miscarriages more dangerous.

When you have your first bad sonogram, you fall into an abyss of maternity care. If you haven't experienced it, you might not know the contours of this purgatory, but I can tell you what it's like. Almost exactly seven years ago, the face of my obstetrician fell while performing an ultrasound for a very wanted pregnancy, and our collective mood shifted in an instant from buoyant to somber.

I learned that day that it appeared that my pregnancy was not progressing, because my doctor couldn't find a heartbeat. But he couldn't be certain; my period was quite irregular, and it was possible that he misdated the pregnancy and that it was still viable. So I had to wait. One week, then two. Dragging myself into the radiologist's office every few days to see if there was a heartbeat while attempting to work and parent my then-2-year-old and desperately trying not to cry most of my waking moments.

When my doctors were finally certain that the pregnancy would not go forward, I was given three options: I could continue to wait and see if my body would miscarry on its own without intervention, I could take medication and end the pregnancy at home, or I could have a surgical procedure to empty my uterus, known colloquially as a D. and C. (The last two options are the same choices offered to abortion patients.)

I chose the D. and C., mainly because I wanted to get this awful experience over with as soon as possible.

Years later, I am at peace with the pregnancy loss; the fetus had a chromosomal issue called Turner syndrome, which "may cause up to 10 percent of all first-trimester miscarriages," according to the National Institutes of Health. I know now that miscarriages are common. An estimated one-quarter of all pregnancies and around 10 percent of known pregnancies end in miscarriage before 20 weeks. Thankfully, I was able to have another healthy child later. But that two-week wait remains painful to think about.

And yet I'm thinking about it in the aftermath of the Supreme Court's ruling on Friday allowing federal court challenges to Texas' restrictive abortion law, S.B. 8, but leaving the law in effect, essentially outlawing abortions after six weeks in that state. That's because in countries where elective abortion is outlawed or extremely restricted, women are not given the choices I had when they miscarry.

Abortion restrictions create a chilling effect on medical professionals who are understandably concerned about being prosecuted for anything resembling elective abortion. And so doctors in countries with restrictive laws "don't always provide all the relevant information concerning the pregnancy, especially if they see there are complications and they're afraid women can take drastic measures," said Irene Donadio, a senior adviser at the International Planned Parenthood Federation.

I asked Dr. Isabel Stabile, a gynecologist in private practice in Malta and an abortion-rights activist, what first-trimester miscarriage care looks like in her country, where there is a total ban on abortion, with no exceptions. "The short answer to this question is in Malta it's always a wait and see. Women are never given the immediate option of being hospitalized and having a D. and C. nor having pills so we can proceed with a spontaneous miscarriage. The medical and surgical options are never offered as a first line," she said.

She said that in Malta, if your body is holding on to a miscarriage for three or four weeks, you may eventually be given pills to end the pregnancy. By that time, Dr. Stabile said, you may be at greater risk of a rare but serious blood-clotting complication called disseminated intravascular coagulation, which can be avoided by ending a miscarriage earlier. "It's known as a complication. One should at least be monitored," Dr. Stabile said. But in general, the drawn-out nature and "uncertainty of the wait" are the biggest stresses for Maltese women, she said. "You have no idea how long that will be. Will it be one day, one week or one month?"

In cases like mine, when there is no detectable heartbeat, the trauma may primarily be to women's mental health. But when there is a detectable heartbeat and there are other pregnancy complications, there are physiological stakes, including that women can and have died. In Poland, which has some of the strictest abortion laws in Europe, a 30-year-old woman named Izabela died of septic shock this year in Pszczyna after doctors declined to intervene to save her life. The fetus's heart was still beating, so physicians may have been afraid to break the country's laws because the penalty is spending three years in prison, according to reporting in The Guardian.

Izabela isn't the only one. In 2012, before Irish abortion restrictions were rolled back in 2018, a 31-year-old woman named Savita Halappanavar died in similar circumstances. In 2016 in Italy, where abortion is legal until about the 12th week, a woman named Valentina Milluzzo died of sepsis because her doctor refused to help her end her twin pregnancy, even after one twin no longer had a heartbeat. "According to the woman's relatives, the gynecologist, who was a conscientious objector" — something that's legal under Italy's abortion law — "refused to perform an abortion of the second twin after the loss of the first fetus. He remarked that 'as long as it [the fetus] is alive, I will not intervene,'" wrote Elena Caruso in the academic journal Feminist Legal Studies.

If you think this wouldn't happen in the United States, think again, because there is evidence that it is already happening. At Catholic hospitals, which are expected to follow directives set by the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops to never allow abortion services, women may not be getting the full slate of medical options when they present with an ectopic pregnancy.

In September, Ghazaleh Moayedi, an obstetrician-gynecologist in Texas, sounded the alarm in these pages. "Pregnancies that face complications will now be at greater risk. Under this new law, the only abortion exception allowed is for a medical emergency. That might mean if a woman will imminently lose an organ or die without intervention. But how we judge that risk will play out individually with each hospital's policy, in each clinic," she wrote. "I can think of no other area of health care in which we would wait for someone to worsen nearly to the point of death before we offered intervention. It's just unconscionable."

When I read some of the testimony of reproductive choice opponents, I think about how certain they sound about what life is. Situations like mine, which existed in a liminal state for weeks, defy easy categorization and require intimate and informed medical care, not blunt force laws that don't consider these delicate scenarios.

And when I look at polls in which a low percentage of American voters list abortion rights as a top issue, I wonder if those voters have considered how a lack of access to these procedures may affect them, even if they would never have an elective abortion. Those two weeks were among the worst of my life, and thinking about anyone having to prolong that kind of purgatory just about breaks my heart.

Want More on Managing Loss?

Tiny Victories

Parenting can be a grind. Let's celebrate the tiny victories.

I had a challenging workday. When I picked my son up from school, he could tell that I was preoccupied and asked me what was wrong. After telling him in brief what was going on, he launched into how he would give me a hug or go on a walk with me to make me feel better. I said, "Honey, that is really nice of you. Remember, it is not your job to fix me when I feel sad or frustrated." He replied, "Well, you've kept me alive for 11 years. That deserves something."

— Sarah Piper, Atlanta

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