On Politics With Lisa Lerer: Everything You Always Wanted to Know About Impeachment

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SEPTEMBER 26, 2019

By Lisa Lerer

politics newsletter writer

Hi. Welcome to On Politics, your guide to the day in national politics. I'm Lisa Lerer, your host.

Andrew Johnson was impeached in 1868; Richard M. Nixon resigned in 1974 to avoid impeachment; and Bill Clinton was impeached in 1998.Wikimedia Commons; Associated Press; Stephen Jaffe/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

It's been a crazy week in The New York Times's Washington bureau. The Capitol quakes with impeachment fever. An anonymous whistle-blower, allegations of a secret deal with a foreign leader and a president throwing out accusations of treason: At this point, I wouldn't be surprised if Jason Bourne shows up.

Confused about what it all means? We're here to help.

Has President Trump broken the law?

There's some evidence that Mr. Trump may have broken a law barring the solicitation of foreign campaign contributions, by trying to enlist the Ukrainians to essentially collect opposition research against Joe Biden.

But impeachment isn't actually about, well, laws. Under the Constitution, the president, vice president and high-ranking officials can be removed from office if they commit "high crimes and misdemeanors" — a term that's been interpreted as an abuse of power.

Put another way, by former President Gerald Ford: "An impeachable offense is whatever a majority of the House of Representatives considers it to be at a given moment in history."

Who supports moving forward with impeachment?

As of today, more than 90 percent of House Democrats support an impeachment inquiry, as do all the leading Democratic presidential candidates.

How does the public feel? We don't really know. Previous polling has consistently shown that a majority of Americans oppose impeaching Mr. Trump, but those polls were taken when an inquiry would have focused primarily on the Russia investigation. It will take some time to measure whether the recent Ukraine-related allegations change that dynamic.

How does impeachment work?

We have a chart for that!

Right now, six committees in the Democratic-controlled House are investigating Mr. Trump. If the investigations conclude there are reasons to impeach, the House Judiciary Committee will draw up articles of impeachment and hold a committee vote, which would be followed by a full House vote. If at least one of the articles gets a majority vote, the president is impeached.

That's kind of like an indictment.

Then, the process moves to a kind of "trial" in the Republican-controlled Senate, where a team of lawmakers from the House, known as managers, play the role of prosecutors. The president has defense lawyers, and the senators serve as the jury.

If at least two-thirds of the Senate found Mr. Trump guilty, he would be removed from office and the vice president would take over.

But, wait! It's possible that Mitch McConnell, the Senate majority leader, could refuse to hold a trial — a move that would overturn long-held Senate rules but might not be unconstitutional.

How long will this all take?

As long as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi wants.

But there's a strong political argument for moving the process forward this year, given that it gets harder for Democrats to make their case as the election nears — and voters could throw Mr. Trump out of office anyhow. Historically, the process has taken about four months.

How likely is it that Mr. Trump will be removed from office at the end of all this?

Not very. There are no signs that Senate Republicans have any appetite for investigating Mr. Trump. To reach a two-thirds majority in the Senate, at least 20 Republicans would have to vote with every Democrat to remove Mr. Trump from office.

No House Republicans and only two Senate Republicans back any kind of investigation into Mr. Trump. Here's how Senator Mitt Romney of Utah, who described the allegations against Mr. Trump as "deeply troubling," explained his party's resistance earlier this week:

There's such enormous power associated with being the party in power, both in the White House as well as in the Senate and the House. … I think it's very natural for people to look at circumstances and see them in the light that's most amenable to their maintaining power, and doing things to preserve that power.

How does this effect the 2020 election?This clearly leads to a Joe Walsh surge in Arizona, a Joe Sestak victory in North Dakota and Mayor Pete Buttigieg dropping out of the race to become a professor of 16th century art history.

Seriously, though, no one really knows.

As my colleague Reid Epstein and I wrote today, it's probably not great for the lower-polling candidates, who will now face an even greater struggle to get media attention.

How it impacts the front-runners in the race — Mr. Biden and Senator Elizabeth Warren — is a topic of great debate within Democratic circles right now. We've never seen an impeachment inquiry quite like this, leaving the candidates, strategists and assorted prognosticators navigating uncharted political waters.

Also important to remember: Mr. Trump can run for re-election even if he's impeached by the House. And maybe even if he's removed by the Senate, too.

Want to read what we're reading?

Check out the full whistle-blower complaint and the non-verbatim "transcript" released by the White House of Mr. Trump's call with the Ukrainian president.

And here's our coverage of the director of national intelligence's congressional testimony today, and our running list of who supports impeachment proceedings.

Drop us a line!

We want to hear from our readers. Have a question? We'll try to answer it. Have a comment? We're all ears. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com.

How impeachment is playing in Iowa

My colleagues Sydney Ember and Trip Gabriel spent time in Iowa this week talking to voters at Democratic primary events about the prospect of impeachment.

Here's some of what they heard:

"What Trump has said, to me, tells me he's doubling down on lying. He's straight up lying about what he did," said Tony Faralli, a 69-year-old retiree from East Moline, Ill., who was at an event for Senator Bernie Sanders in Davenport, Iowa, this week. "When it's all said and done, he can't go to jail. We're going to beat him."

But Tim and Melody Klouser, Illinois residents who crossed the Mississippi River to hear Mr. Buttigieg in Dubuque, Iowa, shrugged off reports that President Trump had asked the Ukrainian president to investigate Joe Biden and his son.

"I think things like that go on all the time in politics; it's a dirty business," said Mr. Klouser, 59, a retired worker at a tire plant. "I don't think a lot of the things that he's doing are that bad."

Also waiting for Mr. Buttigieg on Monday night were Jan and Paul Wiedemann. They disagreed over the need to impeach.

"I do not understand why the impeachment process hasn't started," said Ms. Wiedemann, 64, a retired elementary schoolteacher.

Mr. Wiedemann, 65, also retired from the school system, said he wanted to see Mr. Trump removed from office, but at the voting booth. "If he gets impeached, you know who we get?" he said, referring to Vice President Mike Pence.

For more on how impeachment is dividing voters, check out Trip's report from Iowa.

What to read tonight

Erin Schaff/The New York Times

Woman Trying to End Sexual Assault at V.A. Centers Says She Is Attacked in One

"He pressed his entire body against mine," said Andrea Goldstein, a staff member for the House veterans committee, and he said, "You look like you could use a good time."

Wilfredo Lee/Associated Press

Immigrant Population Growth in the U.S. Slows to a Trickle

The U.S. population gained immigrants last year at the slowest pace since 2008. President Trump's approach to immigration is seen as the likely cause.

… Seriously

Is this art?

Sam Gilliam

If you think so, you probably disapprove of Mr. Trump's job performance.

The image in question is Sam Gilliam's 1980 drawing "Coffee Thyme." Data for Progress, a progressive think tank, and the polling firm YouGov Blue showed this picture to respondents and asked them whether they considered it art. Those who did were more likely to hold negative views of Mr. Trump.

Vox first reported on the study, which showed that the gap in Trump approval between people who think "Coffee Thyme" is art and those who don't is bigger than the gap between people with and without college degrees. For more on why that might be, read on.

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