The Daily: The Return of Superpower Conflict

January 14, 2022

Welcome to the weekend. This week, we explored the broader significance of two very different dramas in the news: the threat of Russian war and the Golden Globes. Below, we take a closer look at both.

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The big idea: 'The return of superpower conflict'

The Daily strives to reveal a new idea in every episode. Below, we go deeper on one of those from our show this week.

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American and Russian flags on display at the United States Permanent Mission to the United Nations in Geneva on Monday during talks about soaring tensions over Ukraine.Pool photo by Denis Balibouses

By Lauren Jackson

Associate Audience Editor, Audio

A whirlwind week of European diplomacy is drawing to close — and the close is looking like a draw.

"This is what we call a dead end," Sergei A. Ryabkov, Russia's deputy foreign minister, said after a series of meetings where American and European diplomats tried to deter a Russian invasion of Ukraine. Now, Russia's next move is anyone's guess — but it is likely to be violent.

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This moment, as you heard on Wednesday's show, marks the "return of superpower conflict." It's a real life war game that could help answer some big, open questions for world leaders: What happens when a regional power with growing ambitions moves opportunistically to expand its territorial control and influence? How will the United States respond? And how will the balance of power be affected?

Years of surging nationalism and isolationism have reshaped global politics, and now Russia is testing the waters. In response, a previously floundering NATO has banded together to thwart the threat of expanded Russian influence.

While the actors may make this story feel like a time warp to the 1980s, experts say this moment presents a new test — one that could reveal the strength of Russia's "sphere of influence" while also assessing America's superpower status.

'Expect the worst'

In meetings in Geneva, Brussels and Vienna, Russia demanded that NATO, an alliance founded to contain Soviet power, drastically scale back its presence near Russia's borders in Eastern Europe. The United States refused to concede, upholding the principle that nations cannot redraw international borders by force.

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"We have been very clear with Russia on the costs and consequences of further military action or destabilization," Jake Sullivan, President Biden's national security adviser, told reporters in Washington, adding that the United States was "ready" should Russia choose to escalate its aggression.

Moscow says it has no intention of invading, but 100,000 or so Russian troops are now massing on three sides of Ukraine. These contradictions may be part of President Vladimir V. Putin's tactical strategy: keeping those who oppose him from being able to fully anticipate his next move, according to The Times's Moscow bureau chief.

Though the world is waiting to see whether Russia will invade Ukraine, the prognosis looks dire. On Friday, unidentified hackers brought down several Ukrainian government websites. The provenance of the hacking has not been confirmed, but the incident is the latest in a long line of cyberattacks targeting Ukraine amid its conflict with Russia. The hackers posted a message on the site of the Foreign Ministry saying, "Be afraid and expect the worst."

Now, the Biden administration is accusing Moscow of sending saboteurs into eastern Ukraine to stage an incident that could provide Mr. Putin with a pretext for ordering an invasion of parts or all of Ukraine.

"They're going to invade," Barry Pavel, a director at the Atlantic Council, said, echoing a consensus among his colleagues.

A new currency of power

With this aggression, President Putin is hoping to reassert control over the states that once formed the Soviet Union. It is part of a broader campaign throughout the region to expand the Russian sphere of influence, a concept American diplomats have rejected.

But the buildup of troops and the threat of physical invasion are a distinctly 20th-century form of conquest in a world where the currency of power has grown increasingly digital, not just material. That's what makes this moment different from 30 years ago, some experts say.

"We need to think about spheres of influence as remits in which a state can exercise disproportionate influence that's not only territorial," said Graham Allison, a political scientist at Harvard, adding that now states could wield "military power, economic power and cyberpower."

Cyberattacks are a favored tactic of Mr. Putin in the Kremlin's efforts to influence elections and steal foreign data. But some say the American threat of counter-cyberattack, alongside its decades of soft-power influence in former Soviet states now agitating for regime change, will make it difficult for Russia to turn back the clock to a previous era of influence.

Referencing the recent protests in Kazakhstan, Sir Andrew Wood, the former British ambassador to Russia, said there was "a degree of liberal yearning" among younger generations in the former Soviet republics that Mr. Putin would find difficult to quell, even if he succeeded in a campaign of territorial expansion.

"It's a big mistake," he said of invasion. "Being a successful bully lasts for a time, perhaps, but it doesn't make you love somebody."

An American test

If Russia chooses to invade, the United States and its allies will face the challenge of how to respond: weighing the prospects of sanctions that could anger Russian citizens (who are accustomed to American products like iPhones), a counter-cyberattack or support for a Ukrainian insurgency.

The choice the Biden administration makes will have implications for America's reputation. "China will be watching carefully" to see which move the United States makes, Mr. Wood said, adding that Russian success in invasion without meaningful deterrence would "prove that the U.S. is not a formidable enemy."

It could also affect the likelihood of further territorial aggression from Russia and China. "It's the return of history, where great powers go at it and things get really bad sometimes," Mr. Pavel said. "Expect a very tumultuous decade."

3 great film performances to watch

Ruth Negga, left, as Clare and Tessa Thompson as Irene in "Passing."Netflix

On Monday, the pop culture reporter Kyle Buchanan took us through the rise and fall of the Golden Globes — and explained why one of Hollywood's glitziest (and most scandalous) awards shows was downgraded to a ceremony that was live-tweeted from a room in the Beverly Hilton.

At the Hilton, the winners that were announced overlooked "so many of the best performances," Kyle noted in his column The Projectionist. Kyle made a list of six acting performances that he thinks Oscar voters ought to consider, and we highlighted three of them below. If you're stuck at home trying to avoid the Omicron variant, consider watching one of these:

Jessie Buckley in "The Lost Daughter"
In this dreamlike thriller, Olivia Colman plays a college professor who goes on a Greek island vacation and is prompted to confront memories from her past. Buckley, an Irish actress, plays an earlier version of Colman's character. She emerges as "the stealth M.V.P. of the movie," Kyle said. "Not only must she convince as Colman, she has to tease out this unhappy character's mysterious back story and sell several scenes that sound unsympathetic on paper."
Ruth Negga in "Passing"
"Passing," based on the 1929 novel by Nella Larsen, follows two high school friends who reconnect by accident in 1920s New York. Both are light-skinned African Americans, but one of them, Negga's character, is "passing" as white. "A year after watching this movie, I continue to turn Negga's performance over to examine it from new angles," Kyle said. "That's what you call a gem, isn't it?"
Colman Domingo in "Zola"
"Zola" isn't based on a book — it's based on a tweet thread that went viral in 2015. It follows two strippers who head to Florida on a road trip gone wrong. Domingo plays a pimp named X, who is "both frightening and a live-wire hoot, sometimes toggling between those extremes in the space of a line," Kyle said. Domingo has appeared in several award-winning films, like "The Butler" and "Selma," and now "it's high time the Oscars let themselves be charmed by Domingo himself," Kyle insists.

TAKE A LOOK AT KYLE'S FULL LIST.

The Projectionist

Don't Sleep on These 6 Performances During Awards Season

As various nominating groups unveil their choices, these impressive turns have been largely overlooked. But there's still time to rectify that, academy voters!

By Kyle Buchanan