The Daily: A ‘New Iron Curtain’

February 25, 2022

The big idea: This is just the beginning

There is one major story this week: the war in Ukraine. While we're still in the middle of the news, and it's uncertain what developments will follow, we wanted to answer some of your questions about the Russian invasion.

By Lauren Jackson

Associate Audience Editor, Audio

A residential building was hit by missiles in Kyiv as the battle continues for the Ukrainian capital city.Lynsey Addario for The New York Times

Bombs are falling in Europe. A major world power is at war. And no easy resolution is in sight.

In the hours since President Vladimir V. Putin invaded Ukraine, Russian troops have entered the country by land, air and sea, attacking cities and taking control of the Chernobyl nuclear reactor.

Train stations and highways are crowded with those trying to flee; desperate lines persist at empty ATMs and gas stations; and many citizens are now soldiers, conscripting and preparing Molotov cocktails to defend family homes in the battle for Kyiv.

This moment is not only about the future of Ukrainian sovereignty and statehood, but also about a confrontation of ideologies and superpowers — one which has set off a chain reaction we can barely see the beginning of now.

As you've heard in our audio dispatches, we're right in the middle of the news, trying to keep pace with developments world leaders are calling "unthinkable," "barbaric" and a "turning point in the history of Europe." So while we wait to see what happens next, we wanted to try to answer a few of the questions you've sent us.

What are Putin's real motives?

Putin has spun conspiracy theories to justify his invasion of Ukraine.

But through his public statements, he has made clear that his true target goes beyond regaining control of his neighboring country. He is interested in challenging America's superpower status, which he described as an "empire of lies." Julia Ioffe, writing for Puck, explains that this war is really about settling old scores and rewriting the terms of surrender that ended the Cold War — albeit 30 years later. And as part of that calculation, Putin appears to have threatened nuclear war.

Continue reading the main story

In another rambling speech full of festering historical grievances and accusations of a relentless Western plot against his country, Mr. Putin reminded the world on Thursday that Russia "remains one of the most powerful nuclear states" with "a certain advantage in several cutting-edge weapons."

He warned of "consequences you have never faced in your history" for "anyone who tries to interfere with us."

Mr. Putin's move into Ukraine and his thinly veiled nuclear threat have now shattered Europe's notions of security and the presumption of peace that it has lived with for several generations. The postwar European project, which produced so much stability and prosperity, has entered a new, uncertain and confrontational stage.

Do sanctions actually work?

Western leaders across Europe and the United States have collaborated to impose sanctions on Russia in response to the invasion, measures they have described as "strong" and "severe." Our colleagues at The Morning newsletter have spent the last two days breaking down the import of these sanctions — and their likely effect.

Continue reading the main story

According to David Leonhardt, the sanctions will damage the Russian economy. For example, after the U.S. and Britain announced new measures yesterday — making it harder for Russian companies to raise money or import goods — an index of Moscow's stock market fell by more than 30 percent.

But these sanctions fall well short of what the U.S. and Europe could impose. In the short term, those sanctions are unlikely to stop Putin from menacing Ukraine. "Russia right now is sitting on quite a pile of extra cash," Melissa Eddy, a Times correspondent in Berlin, said. "They have a war chest."

But there are two big uncertainties: whether the sanctions will hurt Russia's economy once that war chest is drawn down; and whether the U.S. and Europe will impose tougher sanctions if Putin continues his war.

What could this mean in the long term?

It's impossible to say what the outcome of this war will be, and what effects will ripple out from this moment we're in. But we wanted to share some smart coverage with you that we think are asking smart questions.

Continue reading the main story

As we wrote in the newsletter a few weeks ago, this moment could answer some big, open questions for world leaders: What happens when a regional power with growing ambitions moves opportunistically to expand its territorial control and influence? How will the United States respond? And how will the balance of power be affected? China — and Taiwan — will be watching closely.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine caused a surge in energy prices on Thursday, adding to worries over tight supplies and raising fresh questions about the flows of oil and gas from Russia into Europe in the months ahead. While Western leaders search for alternatives to Russian fuel, climate activists like Bill McKibben say an expedited shift to renewables is the solution.
While Europe and the United States have shown themselves to be unwilling to send troops to Ukraine, some argue there are many ways Western states could be pulled into this conflict. Some experts are worried about a destabilized Poland, a refugee crisis in Europe and the prospect of a massive cyberwar.

LISTEN TO OUR COVERAGE OF THE INVASION FROM OUR CORRESPONDENTS ON THE GROUND:

Sergey Bobok/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Ukrainians' Choice: Fight or Flee?

An exploration of the significance of Russia's invasion and the decisions Ukrainians must now make.

By Michael Barbaro, Rob Szypko, Rachelle Bonja, Lynsea Garrison, Rachel Quester, Kaitlin Roberts, Clare Toeniskoetter, Lisa Tobin, Lisa Chow, Marion Lozano, Dan Powell and Corey Schreppel

Brendan Hoffman for The New York Times

The Russian Invasion Begins

In the hours before the assault and during the attack itself, we heard from our correspondents in the Ukrainian cities of Kyiv and Slovyansk, and in Moscow.

By Lynsea Garrison, Clare Toeniskoetter, Asthaa Chaturvedi, Sydney Harper, Lisa Chow, Larissa Anderson, Marion Lozano, Dan Powell and Chris Wood

Sergei Ilnitsky/EPA, via Shutterstock

'A Knife to the Throat': Putin's Logic for Invading Ukraine

An address by the Russian president on Monday revealed some of the thinking behind the aggression and hinted at his wider intentions.

By Michael Barbaro, Austin Mitchell, Michael Simon Johnson, Mooj Zadie, M.J. Davis Lin, Patricia Willens, Marion Lozano, Elisheba Ittoop and Chris Wood

From The Daily Team: the story behind Thursday's episode

People take shelter in a parking garage in Kyiv on Friday.Brendan Hoffman for The New York Times

Daylight was dwindling on the East Coast, the evening was fast approaching, and in Ukraine, Sabrina Tavernise was plotting where to hide in her hotel room should Russia invade.

About an hour earlier, we had heard the news that a Russian attack on Ukraine was imminent. But the news was speculative; while we waited to hear more, our team, and our show, was in limbo.

The team pulled together a group of producers and editors in London, New York and Washington, D.C., and contacted reporters in Russia and Ukraine. We wanted to "tell the story of the night through the eyes and ears of Times reporters on the ground," the producer Asthaa Chaturvedi said. Throughout the night, reporters like Sabrina fed audio dispatches as the story developed.

This approach was informed by our recent coverage of Afghanistan, the producer Lynsea Garrison said. Quick voice memos from people on the ground have the ability to "unfurl fast-moving events in a simple but compelling way," Lynsea said. "It's way more powerful to have someone talk to you in the moment they're in, rather than recap it to you later."

As the night went on, "the episode was coming together in real time as the news unfolded," the producer Clare Toenisketter explained. Lynsea, along with the producer Sydney Harper, started building the scaffolding of the episode. They listened to clips from the impassioned video address that Zelensky gave on live television in Russian, and they recorded Sabrina's translations in English.

As our correspondents were sending in voice memos responding to the news from the night, Asthaa would edit and weave them into the episode. We heard from Anton Troianovski, the Moscow bureau chief, as he was "still processing" Putin's televised declaration of war against Ukraine, shortly after 6 a.m. local time. And we heard the startled voice of Michael Schwirtz, reporting from Slovyansk, as he awoke to "two very large booms" coming from a neighboring city. "Sabrina, Anton and Michael were able to provide three different angles on the initial phase of the invasion," Asthaa said.

Sydney Harper, along with the episode's editors, Lisa Chow and Larissa Anderson, didn't go to sleep until 4:30 a.m. — the episode came out just an hour and a half later.