Food, fertilizer and the future


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For subscribers	April 27, 2022

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Paul Krugman, a Times Opinion columnist for over 20 years, guides you through U.S. politics and the economy — from the mainstream to the wonkish.

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Corn harvesting in Pskov, Russia. Hans Neleman/Getty Images

By Paul Krugman

Opinion Columnist

As anyone who drives is aware, gasoline prices are up a lot from their 2020 low. First, global economic recovery drove up oil demand, then Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine cut into Russian oil exports. But prices both at the pump and at the wellhead have stabilized, at least for now. By historical standards, real gas prices — prices relative to the overall cost of living — aren't that high; in fact, they're lower than they were from 2006 to 2014. And as of this morning, Texas crude oil was back below $100 a barrel.

Yet, while the energy crunch may be a bit less severe than some imagine, there's a huge crisis in the global food supply. Indeed, over the past year the surge in wheat prices has been much bigger than the surge in oil prices:

Wheat beats oil.Bloomberg

This hurts here in America, but it hurts much more in poorer nations, where a much larger share of family spending goes to food. What's behind the food crisis?

One piece of the story is obvious …

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