Can Dems walk and chew gum at the same time?
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| Democratic presidential candidates during the second night of the Democratic debate in June.Wilfredo Lee/Associated Press |
The great majority of Americans consider Donald Trump unpresidential. A plurality consider his recent Tweets racist; half believe his campaign coordinated with Russia. It's fair to say that most of America finds Trump pretty vile. |
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The question for Democrats is what to do with that reality. The thing is, it's a lot less relevant politically than you might imagine. Most of the people who consider Trump vile would never have voted for him anyway, and many of the rest will vote for him despite their personal distaste, because they hate liberals more. |
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Yet it would also be wrong to say that Trump's unique awfulness is irrelevant. His approval rating is remarkably low given growth over 3 percent and unemployment under 4 percent. And perceptions of character do drive votes: the Clinton email "scandal" — yes, it was fake, but it was relentlessly hyped by the media and fueled by James Comey's misbehavior — almost surely swung the 2016 election. |
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So how should Democrats be handling this election? I've seen a lot of commentators lecturing the Dems about not making the election all about Trump. But who's actually doing that? On the campaign trail, the leading progressive candidates barely talk about Trump; Elizabeth Warren, for example, spends most of her time laying out her policy proposals. The only major contender who really does seem to put attacks on Trump at the core of his campaign is … Joe Biden. |
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On the other hand, not making the campaign about Trump at all — in effect, normalizing him — would surely be foolish. Maybe only a few percent of the electorate can be swayed by reminders that a terrible man sits in the White House, but that could easily be the margin of victory. |
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The question is how to balance these concerns; and that's mainly up to Nancy Pelosi, not the presidential candidates. I think I understand why Pelosi isn't moving forward with impeachment, although she knows as well as anyone that it's richly deserved: She probably doesn't have the votes, even in the House, and doesn't want to give Trump anything he could call a win. On the other hand, it is puzzling how low-energy House Democrats have been at pursuing Trump's multiple scandals — and his tax returns! |
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At the same time, Democrats need to sell their policy agenda. For the most part, concerns that they're moving too far left are, I believe, overblown: centrists may be horrified at proposals to raise taxes on the wealthy and expand social benefits, and they may imagine that the nation as a whole shares their horror. But polling actually shows that such proposals are highly popular. |
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The one thing that worries me is the rush to embrace a purist version of "Medicare for all" that eliminates private insurance. That seems like an unnecessary political risk on an issue where Democrats have a huge inherent advantage, since there are less disruptive ways to achieve universal coverage. |
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So can Democrats walk and chew gum at the same time? Can they run mainly on things Americans want, like guaranteed health care, while also reminding voters that a terrible person occupies the White House? The fate of the republic may hinge on the answer. |
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Republicans trying to blackmail Democrats over the debt ceiling, with Trump in the White House? Unreal. |
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If you're enjoying what you're reading, please consider recommending it to friends. They can sign up here. If you want to share your thoughts on an item in this week's newsletter or on the newsletter in general, please email me at krugman-newsletter@nytimes.com. |
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