 | | The rally at which President Trump presided Wednesday night in Greenville, N.C. Tom Brenner for The New York Times | |
| This was the kind of explosive week in Washington that should make anyone interested in the state of American politics sit up and take notice. |
| President Trump’s attacks on four minority first-term congresswomen turned into a brawl over some of the most divisive issues in American civic life — race and ethnicity, citizenship and partisanship. His rally last night, peppered with chants of “send her back,” raised fears that his no-holds-barred political tactics could feed the country’s ugliest impulses. |
| Mr. Trump is betting his presidency on his ability to inflame those divisive issues, and his actions over the past week give us some hints about what to expect from his re-election campaign. (Spoiler: It’s going to be rough.) |
| 1. Mr. Trump will play identity politics. |
| “Send her back! Send her back!” |
| Typically, when political types use the phrase “identity politics,” it’s a coded way to talk about liberals trying to appease voters of color. In reality, though, versions of race-based politics targeted at white voters have been used by Republicans for decades. |
| But unlike Presidents George W. Bush or Richard M. Nixon, who embraced slogans almost identical to Mr. Trump’s “America: Love it or leave it” approach, the current president doesn’t do dog whistles. |
| He tells four liberal, minority congresswomen to “go back” to their ancestral countries. He has spent most of his presidency equating Latino immigrants with criminals. He tries to strengthen the political power of white voters by changing the census — literally altering who is counted in America. |
| And after standing silent during the crowd’s chant last night, Mr. Trump said today that he was “not happy” with his supporters’ words, even claiming he tried to stop it — an assertion contradicted by video of the event. |
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| Since 2016, a number of academic studies have found a strong connection between high levels of racial resentment and support for Mr. Trump. In research published last March, a research team led by the political scientist Brian Schaffner of the University of Massachusetts found that higher levels of denial of racism were correlated with greater support for Mr. Trump. |
| That feeling is particularly mobilizing among non-college educated white voters — you know, the kind who helped Mr. Trump win Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania last time around. So, this is a campaign strategy, crafted by a politician with a good sense for the desires of his base. |
| 2. It’s not about the economy, stupid. |
“I think, in some cases, they hate our country. You know what? If they don’t love it, tell them to leave it.”
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| Mr. Trump has the kind of economy that’s the stuff of re-election dreams. The unemployment rate is 3.7 percent, near its lowest level since 1969. The economy has grown for a record 121 consecutive months. And the stock market is reaching record highs. |
| But don’t expect to hear much about it. As much as Republican leaders would like this race to be run over the economy, as my colleagues Jonathan Martin and Alex Burns wrote last month, Mr. Turmp’s political instincts will drive the race into the more inflammatory cultural issues. |
| That dynamic helps explain some of what we’re seeing in the polls: Voters give Mr. Trump credit for the economy, but don’t see him as presidential. In 2018, Democrats won control of the House on the backs of college-educated suburban voters turned off by Mr. Trump’s behavior. Whether his style continues to alienate those suburban swing voters, who would otherwise see a vote for Mr. Trump as support for economic prosperity, is a central question of the race. |
| 3. Buckle your seatbelts; it’s going to be a bumpy ride. |
| “A vote for any Democrat in 2020 is a vote for the rise of radical socialism and the destruction of the American dream — frankly, the destruction of our country.” |
| Mr. Trump and Republicans have decided that the only way to counter an unpresidential president is to make your opponents seem even more unfit for office. His comments this week are the culmination of a monthslong Republican effort to make “the squad” of freshman congresswomen the face of the Democratic Party, as a way to paint Democrats as radical socialists who hate America. It’s a strategy that the G.O.P. is embracing up and down the ticket. |
| Moderate Democrats worry that they’re playing into Mr. Trump’s hands by embracing policies like “Medicare for all” and free college. The liberal wing argues that those policies are broadly popular and that what the party needs is a more aggressive pushback on Mr. Trump, like starting impeachment proceedings — a step they tried, unsuccessfully, to take last night |
| But neither side of the party is holding back when it comes to Mr. Trump. After his rally last night, the 2020 candidates fired off their tweets: “vile,” “disgusting,” “racist” and “misogyny.” |
| In the Trump era, our national conversation is a shouting match. |
| [Want to share this on social media? Click here to read this edition of On Politics on the web.] |
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| Drop us a line! |
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| We want to hear from our readers. Have a question? We’ll try to answer it. Have a comment? We’re all ears. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com. |
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| 3 House votes you may have missed |
| It has been a busy few days of voting in the Democratic-controlled House of Representatives. In addition to the high-profile votes you may have heard about — like trying to impeach the president and contempt charges for cabinet officials — there were some that flew under the radar. Here are three you should know about: |
| Raising the minimum wage |
| What: The House voted largely along party lines to raise the federal minimum wage to $15 an hour by 2025, more than doubling the current federal minimum wage, which is $7.25. |
| Why: The vote delivers a long-sought victory for liberals, potentially raising the wage for the first time since 2009 (the country’s longest stretch without an increase since 1938). But Senate Republicans have vowed to block it. |
| Read more: House Votes to Raise Minimum Wage to $15, a Victory for Liberals |
| Health insurance tax |
| What: The House voted overwhelmingly to repeal a feature once considered central to the Affordable Care Act — a tax on high-cost health insurance plans aimed at containing costs. |
| Why: There was bipartisan support for repealing the tax, which was opposed by both unions and business groups. But the move is expected to increase deficits by nearly $200 billion over the next decade, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. |
| Read more: House Votes to Repeal Obamacare Tax Once Seen as Key to Health Law |
| Weapons sales to Saudi Arabia |
| What: The House gave final passage to measures that would block the sale of billions of dollars of arms to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. |
| Why: It was yet another rebuke of President Trump’s efforts to circumvent Congress to help Persian Gulf allies with a disastrous war in Yemen, and a smattering of Republicans joined in. The votes most likely set up Mr. Trump’s third veto. |
| Read more: House Votes to Block Arms Sales to Gulf Nations, Setting Up Trump’s Third Veto |
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| Covering the 2020 Election: Politics, Pacing and Twinkies |
| The Times is hosting a live event on Tuesday, Aug. 6, at 7 p.m. in New York City that we think On Politics readers will enjoy. |
| Hosted by the deputy politics editor Rachel Dry, you’ll hear from our colleagues (and On Politics contributors) Astead Herndon and Katie Glueck on this historic field of Democratic candidates. Plus, the food columnist Melissa Clark and Jonathan Martin — who regaled us last fall with his favorite places to eat on the campaign trail — will discuss deep-fried Twinkies at the Iowa State Fair. And more! |
| You can find tickets here. |
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| What to read tonight |
| • Here’s a visual investigation of which parts of the country would be most affected if Roe v. Wade were overturned. |
| • Thousands of Puerto Ricans taking to the streets of San Juan, demanding the resignation of their governor, Ricardo A. Rosselló. On the fifth day of protests, here’s a look at the story behind the outcry. |
| • Pete Buttigieg “has a knack for reducing the intractable issues of American life to some academic-sounding ‘project.’” The mayor of South Bend, Ind., gets the Leibovich magazine treatment. |
| ____________________ |
| … Seriously |
| Hey, I have an idea. Let’s start a podcast. Oh, wait … |
| _____________________ |
| Were you forwarded this newsletter? Subscribe here to get it delivered to your inbox. |
| Thanks for reading. Politics is more than what goes on inside the White House. On Politics brings you the people, issues and ideas reshaping our world. |
| Is there anything you think we’re missing? Anything you want to see more of? We’d love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com. |
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