“On Politics With Lisa Lerer: What’s Worrying Democrats Now?

December 9, 2019

By Lisa Lerer

Politics Newsletter Writer

Hi. Welcome to On Politics, your guide to the day in national politics. I’m Lisa Lerer, your host.

First, it was the fears of a contested convention. Then came the fretting about the strength of the field.

So, what’s the latest break-glass scenario worrying Democrats? Well, it’s something I’ve taken to calling the Four-Way Cluster.

Here’s the thinking:

Pete Buttigieg is surging in Iowa, so he wins the caucuses. Then, Elizabeth Warren comes rushing back in New Hampshire. Bernie Sanders, known for his ability to organize caucus states and for his support from Latinos, picks up Nevada. And Joe Biden, who has the most support from black voters of anyone in the field, captures South Carolina.

Democrats arrive at Super Tuesday on March 3 with four winners in four states — and no clear front-runner. Cue former New York City Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg. As we’ve written, he’s skipping the first four early states and plans to start competing on Super Tuesday — with hundreds of millions in television ads and hundreds of staffers.

All five of those candidates have enough funds that could keep them in the race for quite a while. So, a divided slate of wins could stretch the primary into the spring and raise the chances of Democrats arriving at their convention without a clear leader for the nomination.

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This is not a scenario that makes anyone in the Democratic Party all that happy, as my colleague Jonathan Martin wrote this weekend.

Rice University’s Baker Institute invited me to participate today in their annual conference on presidential elections. And there, as in other corners of the political world, there was chatter about the Four-Way Cluster.

“There’s a better chance than not that we go to Milwaukee without a nominee,” the Democratic strategist James Carville told the audience, in his signature Louisiana drawl. “I don’t think anything is a given in U.S. politics.”

But is the Four-Way Cluster just another manifestation of Democratic anxiety? Probably. At least according to those closest to the race.

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Aides to top candidates told me that the scenario was unlikely: Once candidates start winning, their victories shake up the race, changing the dynamics. Besides, they added, we’re still weeks from the Iowa caucuses on Feb. 3. A lot of voters — particularly in Nevada and South Carolina — simply aren’t paying attention yet.

Josh Putnam, a political scientist who writes the blog FrontloadingHQ, which tracks the details of the primary process, urged the audience to watch the 15 percent threshold that candidates must meet in these primaries to pick up delegates in the race.

He expects Democrats to know their nominee by the end of April, when more than 80 percent of the delegates will have been distributed. As for the prospect of a contested convention? “Overblown,” he says.

What we can say for certain is that Democrats remain fiercely divided. Eight weeks before the first round of voting in Iowa, no singular candidate has tapped into the deep unhappiness with President Trump to capture the imagination of Democratic voters.

At this point, the race remains remarkably fluid.

My advice? Brace yourself for some major twists this spring.

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John Kerry Returns to the Spotlight in New Hampshire

Calla Kessler/The New York Times

“Good morning, Nashua!” former Secretary of State John F. Kerry said Sunday as he opened his remarks inside a frigid community college gymnasium. “It is great to be back in the Granite State.”

Indeed, Mr. Kerry appeared happy to be back. This time, however, he was not campaigning for himself; he was making two Sunday campaign stops with former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. and trying to explain to voters who helped him win the 2004 Democratic primary why Mr. Biden should win it in 2020.

Mr. Kerry argued that his former Senate colleague and fellow member of the Obama administration had the wisdom and experience to hit the ground running and quickly restore America’s standing in the world.

“I’ve worked with this man,” Mr. Kerry said. “I know that Joe Biden is the person who can beat Donald Trump and bring this country back together.”

But he also seemed more than happy to take a trip down memory lane. He used much of his 20-minute address — double the time of Mr. Biden’s remarks — to regale voters with the tales of town halls “where the air cracked with skepticism” and gymnasiums filled with people who “really listened” and would eventually help his struggling campaign rebound.

As for Mr. Biden, he continued his efforts to conduct intimate conversations with voters. He kept his prepared remarks short and paced the stage while giving them; that left more time for questions and answers during which Mr. Biden made sure to turn and face the people asking questions and address them up close.

At his second event in Hampton, N.H., one questioner told Mr. Biden he had seen his tense moment with a voter in Iowa last week, when a man had said Mr. Biden was “too old” for the job of president.

Then, in a move borrowed from Mr. Biden’s playbook, the man looked Mr. Biden in the eye and said what he and other voters I have talked to strongly felt: “I want you to know that I am 87 years old, and I don’t think you are.”

— Matt Stevens, Politics reporter

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