2019年8月30日 星期五

At War: A possible meeting between the U.S. and Iran

Forty-two years have passed since the last face-to-face talks between American and Iranian leaders

By Jake Nevins

Dear reader,

Forty-two years have passed since the last face-to-face talks between American and Iranian leaders, when former president Jimmy Carter met with the Iranian shah, Mohammed Reza Pahlavi. This week at the Group of 7 summit in Biarritz, France, President Trump indicated a willingness to meet in person with the Iranian president Hassan Rouhani "if the circumstances were correct or right." On Tuesday, however, President Rouhani said on Iranian state television that "the key to positive developments is in Washington's hands," declaring the economic sanctions imposed on Iran by Trump's administration the primary obstacle to a prospective détente between the two countries.

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Since President Trump's withdrawal from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, which rescinded economic sanctions on Iran and limited its nuclear enrichment capacity, relations between the two countries have been especially contentious. They were made more so this summer, with the Trump administration's imposing new sanctions on Iran, blocking the country's access to global oil exports, and expediting warships and B-52 bombers to the Persian Gulf, where, the Trump administration claims, Iran has attacked two oil tankers this summer in an assertion of control over one of the world's most vital shipping lanes. In June, Iran shot down an American surveillance drone over the Strait of Hormuz, accusing the United States of violating its airspace. President Trump reportedly called for a retaliatory strike but aborted the plan due to estimates that Iranian casualties would most likely exceed 150. President Trump echoed that display of brinkmanship this week in Biarritz, when he said any Iranian attempts to infringe on American interests would "be met with really violent force."

Nevertheless, President Emmanuel Macron of France was undeterred in his efforts to facilitate negotiations between the two leaders, extending a last-minute invitation to the Group of 7 summit to Iran's foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, who arrived in the coastal French town unexpectedly and held meetings with representatives of France, Germany and the United Kingdom. "Iran's active diplomacy in pursuit of constructive engagement continues," Zarif tweeted after his visit to Biarritz. "Road ahead is difficult. But worth trying." Earlier this week, President Trump punctuated the Group of 7 by reiterating his commitment to preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, though he publicly entertained the idea of extending the nation a line of credit, in the form of short-term loans secured by oil, to help it withstand the economic turmoil wrought by the latest sanctions. "We can have it done in a very short period of time, and I really believe that Iran can be a great nation," he said. "I would like to see that happen. But they can't have nuclear weapons. O.K.?"

While President Macron's diplomatic overtures reflected a consensus among European nations that would like to see the United States recommit to the Iran nuclear deal, any potential negotiations between Trump and Rouhani risk being marred by Iran's nuclear ambitions and the administration's commitment to thwarting them. In 2013, though, President Barack Obama did speak to President Rouhani by phone in an effort to resolve their dispute over Iran's nuclear program. But four decades of hostility, beginning with the Tehran hostage crisis, have steadily eroded the possibility of U.S. and Iranian leaders meeting face to face — and seeing eye to eye.

— Jake

Jake Nevins is The New York Times Magazine's editorial fellow.

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