2019年10月22日 星期二

Fear and self-loathing on the impeachment trail

How many Republicans still have consciences?
Lindsey Graham at the Capitol last week.Erin Schaff/The New York Times
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By Paul Krugman

Opinion Columnist

Nobody likes admitting error, and the bigger the error, the harder it is to admit. Conceding that you got a fact wrong or made a bad prediction is one thing, although some (many) people can't even do that. What's really hard to do, however, is to admit error when doing so calls into question your character, your judgment or your whole worldview.

You may think I'm talking about politics, and I will be in a minute. But refusal to admit error happens in many areas of human endeavor. When Bloomberg contacted economists who signed an open letter declaring that Ben Bernanke's policies would produce runaway inflation to ask why the inflation never materialized, not one of them would admit having been wrong, because that would have meant admitting that their model of how the economy works was way off base.

Even hard science is plagued by the inability to admit error. The great physicist Max Planck famously declared that opponents of a new scientific truth are rarely persuaded — they just eventually die off.

In fact, people find it so hard to admit to large errors that they often respond to failure by doubling down on their mistakes. Some World War I generals butchered their men with repeated frontal assaults on enemy trenches, in an apparent attempt to vindicate their initial stupidity. Students of business history talk about a phenomenon they call "escalation of commitment," in which managers not only refuse to abandon failing strategies but dig in deeper, in an attempt to prove that they were right all along.

Which brings me to the hole elected Republicans, especially in the Senate, have dug for themselves.

Many — perhaps most — Republican senators have always known that Trump is morally, emotionally and intellectually unfit for high office; they're cynics, not idiots. At first, however, they decided that it was worth supporting him anyway.

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They were motivated in part by fear: crossing Trump might lead to a primary challenge, without any lucrative gigs at Fox News or right-wing think tanks to soften the blow.

But they also thought that the trade-off was worth making. Yes, supporting Trump meant accepting corruption, contempt for rule of law and maybe a little light treason. But think of the tax cuts, the deregulation, the appointments of right-wing judges!

And as Trump's abuses became more extreme, almost all elected Republicans doubled down, becoming even more obsequious and supportive. After all, making a break with Trump would amount to an admission that they had previously enabled his malfeasance, and that admission got harder the worse the malfeasance.

Hence the moral descent of people like Lindsey Graham or Marco Rubio. They may be weak, but they're not stupid. They probably knew they were on the highway to hell. But they lacked the courage to get off.

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The big question is whether things will change now that the obvious has become undeniable. Trump's self-dealing, his attempts to get foreign regimes to intervene in U.S. politics, his betrayal of allies are right out there in the open.

Maybe I still have too much faith in human nature, but I'd like to imagine that there are some Republicans who look at themselves in the mirror and feel self-loathing, who might yet seize a chance at redemption.

But how many G.O.P. senators still have a conscience? We're probably going to find out in a few months.

Quick Hits

Trump's trade czar has an imaginary friend. My source Lumap Gurkan thinks that's O.K. Maybe Ron Vara is also friends with Mark Esperanto.

Bruce Wayne, I mean Mitt Romney, has a secret Twitter identity.

About those World War I generals.

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