On Politics Poll Watch: Please Hold

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October 25, 2019

Welcome to Poll Watch from On Politics. Every Friday, we'll bring you the latest data and analysis to track the race for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination.

Current State of the Race

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Who's Up? Who's Down? Here's the Latest.

By Alexander Burns

National Political Correspondent

Joe Biden appears to have recovered his footing in the polls, staving off Elizabeth Warren's September surge and maintaining his status as the leading candidate — at least for now.

Mr. Biden remains highly vulnerable in the Democratic race: His national support is still below 30 percent in our polling average and Ms. Warren is only a few points behind him. Perhaps more important, his campaign is under significant financial strain after a mediocre fund-raising quarter, and he has struggled to establish a clear lead in three of the four early-voting states.

But if a month ago the race appeared to be on a clear and even inexorable trajectory, with Mr. Biden losing ground and Ms. Warren gaining on him, those trends have paused in recent weeks. Nearly all of the candidates have effectively flatlined in national polls, a development that may reflect voters' limited attention to the Democratic race in the midst of an impeachment battle.

The lack of movement in the polls is telling in other ways, too: Bernie Sanders has not lost support since his heart attack in early October, an event that initially seemed like it could destabilize his candidacy. He remains in third place but is making an aggressive play to build strength in Iowa, along with Pete Buttigieg and several other candidates like Amy Klobuchar, Cory Booker and Kamala Harris.

Right now, only three candidates clearly have the financial strength to take on Mr. Biden: Ms. Warren, Mr. Sanders and Mr. Buttigieg. Mr. Biden is counting on Ms. Warren and Mr. Sanders to keep the left wing of the Democratic Party divided, while hoping that no other candidate gains enough traction with ideological centrists or African-Americans to undermine his fragile coalition.

The last week was also a reminder of how, in an unpredictable and intense race, unlikely candidates can periodically be thrust into the middle of the political conversation.

The most-covered Democratic candidate in recent days, outside of the top three, has been Tulsi Gabbard, a Hawaii lawmaker with scant support in polls or fund-raising. But when Hillary Clinton accused her of being a "favorite of the Russians," Ms. Gabbard seized the moment and stirred at least some sympathetic backlash on the left. If she qualifies for the next debate on Nov. 20, she may have Mrs. Clinton to thank for it.

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Does Pete Buttigieg Have Room to Grow?

By Giovanni Russonello

Pete Buttigieg is vying for a spot among the top Democratic contenders.

With former Vice President Joe Biden and Senator Elizabeth Warren jockeying for the top spot in the Democratic presidential race, we decided to take a look at a candidate who's been quietly climbing out of the lower rung: Pete Buttigieg. Are there signs that he could grow into a leading candidate, ultimately rivaling — maybe even beating — Mr. Biden and Ms. Warren?

Mr. Buttigieg, the 37-year-old mayor of South Bend, Ind., was virtually unknown when he began his campaign, then picked up a head of steam in the spring. But for the last several months he has been largely treading water among the second tier of candidates.

A recent batch of polling suggests that could soon change.

Positioning himself as a Midwestern realist, Mr. Buttigieg has focused much of his campaign's formidable war chest on Iowa. He and Ms. Warren have opened more campaign offices than any other candidate in that state, which is less than four hours west of South Bend on Route 80 and will host the Democrats' first nominating contest in February.

Mr. Buttigieg's investment is paying off. A recent Suffolk University/USA Today poll of likely Iowa Democratic caucusgoers showed him alone in third place, at 13 percent support. That put him just a few points behind Mr. Biden, polling at 18 percent, and Ms. Warren, at 17 percent.

"How much Buttigieg can grow is one of the most interesting questions in the race right now," Simon Rosenberg, a Democratic consultant and founder of the centrist New Democrat Network, said in a phone interview.

If Mr. Buttigieg finishes strongly in the Iowa caucuses, Mr. Rosenberg added, he could make a play for the center lane of the Democratic electorate, establishing himself as a moderate alternative to Ms. Warren and a more youthful centrist pick than Mr. Biden, who is 76.

Mr. Buttigieg's star also appears to be on the rise in another early-voting state, New Hampshire, where he consistently polls close to 10 percent, as well as nationwide.

A Quinnipiac University poll released on Thursday showed Mr. Buttigieg at 10 percent among registered Democratic voters across the country, staking sole claim to fourth place and breaking into double digits in a major national poll for the first time since the spring.

And in a national CNN poll released on Wednesday, approximately a quarter of registered Democratic voters identified Mr. Buttigieg as one of the candidates they would like to learn more about, with only Ms. Warren garnering more interest, at 31 percent.

In Iowa, respondents to the Suffolk poll who had watched last week's Democratic debate professed to having been impressed by Mr. Buttigieg. Thirty-nine percent of them said he had performed better than they had expected, higher than for any other candidate; 28 percent of caucusgoers said the same of Senator Amy Klobuchar.

"He's really winning the most with high-engagement Democratic primary voters, which also correlates to who goes to a caucus," Sean McElwee, a co-founder of the progressive think tank Data for Progress, said in a phone interview.

Mr. McElwee's firm used its own data to assess differences in candidate support between voters who were paying close attention to political news and those who were not. The results suggest that Mr. Buttigieg's appeal is twice as great among the most engaged observers.

"I think there's absolutely growth potential with Pete," Mr. McElwee said.

"He sort of creates an interesting coalition that can pull from a good chunk of different bases," Mr. McElwee added. "You can pull in some of Biden's white voters that are maybe more moderate; you can peel away some of the college-educated voters from Warren who are more liberal."

WHAT TO READ TONIGHT

Who's Qualified for the Next 2020 Democratic Debate?

Here's a look at who's made the cut for the November and December debates so far.

By Maggie Astor, K.K. Rebecca Lai, Matt Stevens and Gus Wezerek

Jordan Gale for The New York Times

Bernie Sanders Almost Won Iowa in 2016. He Knows He Can't Slip Now.

Every top Democrat is making calculations to try to win Iowa's first-in-the-nation caucuses. But for Mr. Sanders, the political pressure and personal stakes are unique.

By Sydney Ember

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