Upshot: How the Recession of 2020 Could Begin

Also: Explaining the yield curve

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A welder at a factory in Nantong in China's eastern Jiangsu province. China's industrial output has been slowing.Agence France-Presse — Getty Images How the Recession of 2020 Could Happen By Neil Irwin The freeze-up in business confidence, caused in part by the trade war, could wind up affecting consumer confidence. What's the Deal With That Inverted Yield Curve? By Neil Irwin A sports analogy might help us understand a bet by investors that the future will be worse than the present. Most pregnant women follow medical advice on forgoing alcohol, but what is the best way to reach those who don't? Perhaps not signs like these.Joe Fornabaio for The New York Times The New Health Care Why Warning Pregnant Women Not to Drink Can Backfire By Aaron E. Carroll Harsh measures, or even threats of them, can lead to the avoidance of prenatal care entirely.

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Weekly Highlights The 5 Days That Defined the 2020 Democratic Primary By Shane Goldmacher, K.K. Rebecca Lai and Rachel Shorey How Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Kamala Harris, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren emerged as the leaders of the 2020 money race. Calculator The Best Cities for First-Time Buyers By Michael Kolomatsky If you're thinking of buying your first home, you might want to consider one of these places.

In Case You Missed It Which Democrats Are Leading the Race? By Jasmine C. Lee, Annie Daniel, Rebecca Lieberman, Blacki Migliozzi and Alexander Burns There are 24 Democrats running for president. Here's the latest data to track how they're doing. Huge Turnout Is Expected in 2020. So Which Party Would Benefit? By Nate Cohn Democrats typically gain from a broader electorate in presidential races, but that pattern is not assured in the Trump era.

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